India needs 600 GW non-fossil fuel capacity to meet growing power demand: Study
The study found a high renewable energy pathway of 600 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030 offers the most viable solution if power demand continues to outpace current projections
India needs to scale up its non-fossil-fuel capacity to 600 GW by 2030 to meet its growing electricity demand reliably and affordably, a Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) study has said. CEEW, a New Delhi-based not-for-profit think tank and policy institution, said the study titled “How Can India Meet Its Rising Power Demand? Pathways to 2030” is the first-of-its-kind modelling of India’s power system despatch for every 15 minutes in 2030.
The study found India’s existing, under-construction, and planned generation capacities would meet power needs in 2030 if electricity demand grows as per the Central Electricity Authority’s (CEA) projections. It said a high renewable energy (RE) pathway of 600 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030 offers the most viable solution if power demand continues to outpace current projections due to climate change-induced warming or strong economic growth over the coming five years.
“This would include 377 GW of solar, 148 GW of wind, 62 GW of hydro, and 20 GW of nuclear energy. Deploying 600 GW of clean energy across more states could reduce generation costs by 6-18 paise per unit; eliminate the need for new coal plants; save between ₹13,000 crore and ₹42,400 crore in power procurement costs; create 53,000 to 1,00,000 additional jobs and cut carbon emissions by 9-16%, compared to FY24,” the study said.
It said a varied renewable energy mix spread across states will help meet the demand reliably and at a lower cost. The study said an additional 75 GW of solar could be distributed across more states such as Kerala, Bihar, Punjab, West Bengal, Odisha, and Telangana. “Similarly, 25 GW of additional wind capacity can be installed in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Rajasthan. Diversified renewable energy deployment will halve the unmet demand in the 600 GW-high-demand scenario relative to the 500 GW-high-demand one. Additionally, 6 GW of transmission enhancement across states could be avoided.”
The study warned failing to meet the 2030 non-fossil target will lead to suboptimal outcomes. “If India achieves only 400 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030, and the demand grows more than anticipated [as modelled in the 400 GW-high demand scenario], the unmet demand will be 0.62%, double of that projected in the 500 GW-high demand scenarios.”
The study said 16 GW of new coal capacity will be needed beyond the existing and under-construction assets to meet the demand reliably. “This will likely take more than five years to build,” it said.
The study found interstate and interregional import transmission limits will need significant enhancement. “Overall system costs will be higher by ₹30,000–42,400 crore in 2030, relative to the 500 GW-high demand and 600 GW-high demand scenarios; power sector emissions will go up by 17% over FY24 levels among other likely impacts,” it said.
Minister of state for power and new and renewable energy Shripad Yesso Naik said the government has set ambitious targets to increase the capacity of non-fossil fuels and reach net zero by 2070. “These goals are essential for a Viksit Bharat. Our clean energy journey has been remarkable — from 76 GW in 2014 to 220 GW in 2025 of non-fossil capacity. CEEW’s report, released today [Wednesday], is very timely in highlighting the pathways on this journey until 2030,” Naik said in a statement.
“Renewable energy is the foundation of our future energy security. Every state must leverage its unique RE potential. A clean grid must serve consumers efficiently while ensuring financial viability for discoms.”
India aims to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP to 45% by 2030 from the 2005 level and increase the share of non-fossil fuel-based energy resources to 50% (500 GW) of its installed power generation capacity by 2030 as per the updated nationally determined contribution or NDC (essentially, emissions reduction target) under the Paris Agreement in August 2022.