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Karnataka exit polls show Congress, BJP in tight fight, JD(S) in kingmaker role

The Times Now VMR Karnataka exit poll showed the Congress winning 90 to 103 seats, BJP 80 to 93 seats while Today’s Chanakya showed the BJP getting upto 120 seats.

Karnataka Elections 2018 Updated: May 12, 2018 23:12 IST
HT Correspondent
HT Correspondent
Hindustan Times, Bengaluru
Karnataka,exit polls,Karnataka exit polls
Voters stand in queue at a polling booth during the Karnataka assembly elections 2018 in Bengaluru.(Arijit Sen / HT Photo)

Exit polls for the Karnataka assembly elections released on Saturday evening, after voting lines closed, by and large predict a close contest with some giving a slight advantage to the Congress and others to the BJP.

The Today’s Chanakya exit poll results showed the BJP would win 120 seats (with an error margin of 11 seats), the Congress 73 (with the same error margin) and the JD(S) 26 seats (with an error margin of 7 seats). The exit polll showed a significant gain in the BJP’s vote share from 19% in 2013 to 39% ( with an error margin of 3%) in th e2018 elections. Today’s Chanakya’s exit poll showed the Congress vote share remaining nearly the same at 36% ( with an error margin of 3%)

The Times Now-VMR exit poll showed the Congress winning 90 to 103 seats, BJP 80 to 93 seats in the 224-member assembly and Janata Dal Secular 31 to 39 seats. The JD(S) is expected to play a key role in government formation in case of an unclear verdict. Elections to two seats have been postponed.

The India-Today Axis exit poll seemed to give the Congress the upper hand, with 106 to 118 seats. The BJP trailed with 79 to 92 seats. The JD(S) is seen winning 22 to 30 seats in the Karnataka assembly elections.

The NewsX-CNS poll, on the other hand gave the BJP the upper hand with 102 to 110 seats. The Congress is seen winning 72 to 78 seats and the JD(S) 35 to 39 seats.

The Republic TV Jan Ki Baat exit poll too gave the BJP the edge with 95 to 114 seats with the Congress getting 73 to 82. The JD(S) is expected to get 32 to 43 seats with others picking up the rest.

Exit PollsBJP CongressJD(S) Others
Republic TV

95-114

73-8232-4302-03
Today’s Chanakya120 ± 1173 ± 1126 ± 73 ± 3
India Today79-92 106-11822-30--
Times Now-VMR

80-93

90-10331-39--
News X-CNX

102-110

72-7835-3903-04
ABP-C Voter97-10987-9921-301-8
India TV87 97353

The ABP C-voter Karnataka exit poIl predicts the Congress will get 87 to 99 seats, the BJP 97 to 109 and JD(S) 21 to 30 seats. Others are seen getting up to 08 seats.

India TV’s exit poll results showed the Congress winning 97 seats, the BJP 87, JD (S) 35 and others three.

A ‘poll of exit polls’ put out by NDTV predicts the Congress will win 88 seats, BJP 98 and JDS 33. Others are seen winning 3 seats.

“The exit polls have once again confirmed that these elections are not an easy battle to judge. Actually, these have revealed nothing. Our expectations from the elections are as uncertain as before,” said A Narayana, associate professor for public policy at the Bengaluru-based Azim Premji University.

Exit polls had in the past spectacularly failed to predict the actual outcome.

“The fact that the race will be close was known from the beginning itself. All of these exit polls are equally divided and none of them have disclosed the methodology. So, the suspense remains,” said Delhi-based political analyst N Bhaskara Rao.

The Karnataka elections, seen as a precursor to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, carry high stakes for the main protagonists, the Congress and the BJP. Initial Election Commission data showed 70% voting as of 6 pm .

First Published: May 12, 2018 19:22 IST