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Kerala poll campaigning ends today with no clear winner in sight
A split in anti-incumbency votes between the NDA and UDF will only favour the LDF, said a political observer.
The month-long campaign for Kerala assembly elections 2021, slated for April 6, draws to a close on Sunday evening with the last few days having witnessed some aggressive campaigning by Gandhi siblings--Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. The Congress will hope that it not only helps contain the factional feud in the party but also paves the way for the United Democratic Front’s (UDF) return to power, aided by “better selection” of candidates, experts said.
Some political observers said Kerala’s four-decade-old trend of changing governments after five years may continue; others weren’t so sure.
According to several opinion polls, when the campaigning started, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) appeared to be ahead in messaging and visibility, giving an impression that it will return to power, however, some experts said the sentiment was similar to the ‘India Shining campaign’ of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee era in 2004, when the NDA’s poll slogan spectacularly flopped with Congress-led UPA returning to power.
“It is a close match. The LDF had managed to build a public perception that continuity will be there. But in the last lap there is a considerable dent in this perception,” said political theorist and author J Reghu.
The BJP-led NDA was hopeful of improving its vote share and of BJP winning a couple of seats; however, it was unlikely to change the bi-polar nature of Kerala politics, experts said. They added that a division of votes, affected by the BJP-led NDA, may prove to be decisive in several close fights between the two leading fronts. In the outgoing assembly, the BJP had a single seat-- Nemom in Thiruvananthapuram and its tally may improve to three this time, experts said.
Former vice-chancellor of Central University of Kerala and political scientist Dr G Gopakumar said a split in anti-incumbency votes between the NDA and UDF will only favour the LDF. “The BJP is campaigning vigorously and if it attracts more votes, then that will damage the UDF’s prospects,” he said, adding, a rise in saffron vote share will be a threat to the UDF. Reghu, however, begs to differ, saying people of the state are known for their “tactical voting”. According to him, there is pent-up anger in the party against chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s “autocratic style of functioning” and it will reflect in ballots.
It is a fact that almost all pre-poll surveys have predicted an edge to the ruling Left parties. But political observers and party watchers say it won’t be easy for the Left to buck the trend despite its public relations blitz and the euphoria, which will not reflect in ballots.
The notion of a Left victory was built on LDF’s victory in December 2020 local body elections even when the state government was knee-deep in scandals such as the gold smuggling case and the drug trade case, in which the then party secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan’s son Bineesh Kodiyeri was arrested for money laundering. Experts say the same narrative may not work in assembly polls.
“You can’t measure both, local body and assembly elections, with the same parameters. Other than the loud publicity campaign, I don’t see any tangible reason for the left to come back,” said Reghu.
Gopakumar says, “The UDF failed to project a strong leader and (introduction of) many new faces (candidates) at the eleventh hour may affect its prospects.” However, Congress leaders say that the new faces may actually help the UDF
“More than half of our candidates are new faces and grassroots workers. I am sure the majority of them will romp home and we are comfortably placed,” said former chief minister Oommen Chandy, star campaigner of the UDF.
On the other hand, the LDF sounds confident. “It seems UDF has admitted defeat. That is why even in the dying hours (of campaigning), opposition leader Ramesh Chennithala is raising absurd charges against the government,” said CPI(M) acting secretary A Vijayaraghavan.
The BJP has paraded some of its top leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah and used the emotive Sabarimala issue in its favour. The party is also projecting Metro Man E Sreedharan, to curry favours with voters. The 88-year-old is locked in a fierce three-cornered electoral battle on Palakkad assembly seat.
“The party will rewrite the poll history of the state,” said BJP state president K Surendran. He added that people were fed up with the same alternating governments.
While these three political formations are a major force throughout the state, in Ernakulam district, a corporate party-- Twenty20 is posing a big threat. It is contesting on eight seats in Ernakulam. “The poll picture is quite hazy. There is a silent anti-incumbency factor. I feel the state will stick to its four-decade-old script,” said actor and writer Joy Mathew.
