Monsoon likely to continue, more rain from third week of September: IMD

The usual date for monsoon to begin withdrawing is September 17

The country is likely to see normal to above normal rainfall in September, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said Monday.

In the second week of September, monsoon rain is likely to be deficient in most parts of the country, including northwest and central India. But it is likely to resume after September 17. (AFP)

In the second week of September, monsoon rain is likely to be deficient in most parts of the country, including northwest and central India. But it is likely to resume after September 17.

“We have indicated in our weekly weather update that withdrawal of monsoon may begin from western parts of Rajasthan in the week ending September 18. But we are also expecting a low-pressure area to develop over west central Bay of Bengal around that time. So, while withdrawal of monsoon may begin, but we are still studying as to when it’s likely to completely withdraw. We are expecting normal to above normal rain in Kerala, Karnataka and coastal areas of Maharashtra around and after September 17,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD, in a press conference on Monday.

The usual date for monsoon to begin withdrawing is September 17.

He added that the intra-seasonal variability of monsoon rain was high this year, with June receiving excess rain; July seeing a deficit and August recording excess rain by a very high margin. “Active MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation—the MJO is characterised as an eastward movement of clouds and rainfall near the equator that recurs every 30 to 60 days) and cold El Nino neutral conditions also favoured good rain in August. Rain in September is likely to be normal or above normal,” Mohapatra added.

A cool El Nino neutral phase indicates that the sea’s surface temperature is cooler than normal in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is usually linked to above-normal monsoon rain in India.

“This year, the good monsoon should have helped farmers and the output must be very good. We don’t have an assessment as to how it will impact the economy,” said M Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences.

Monsoon rain over the country is 8% in excess since June 1 with 1% in excess over east and northeast India; 10% deficient over northwest India; 16% in excess over central India and 21% in excess over the south peninsula.