E-Paper
Monsoon reaches Delhi-NCR early
The south-west monsoon arrived in the Delhi-National Capital Region (NCR) on Wednesday, marking only the sixth early onset of the season in 20 years, heralding an intense spell of rain in the next couple of days and, in the medium term, holding out the promise of a bountiful summer harvest.
The south-west monsoon arrived in the Delhi-National Capital Region (NCR) on Wednesday, marking only the sixth early onset of the season in 20 years, heralding an intense spell of rain in the next couple of days and, in the medium term, holding out the promise of a bountiful summer harvest.
Weather scientists held off on a declaration of the monsoon in the capital until Thursday because there had been no rain until 8:30 am on Wednesday, the threshold time for measurement of the precipitation. It will be declared after the rainfall between 8.30 am Wednesday and 8:30 am Thursday is measured.
On Wednesday, Delhi’s Safdarjung Observatory had received 14.6 mm of rain, which is in the moderate category.
“Monsoon has reached Delhi-NCR. It has already covered several parts of western Uttar Pradesh on Tuesday night. We will officially declare monsoon over Delhi on Thursday based on rainfall data collected from 8.30 am on Wednesday to 8.30 am on Thursday,” said Kuldeep Shrivastava, head of the Regional Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
A good monsoon, which accounts for 70% of India’s annual rainfall, is critical to the fortunes of the agricultural sector on which at least 700 million people in India are dependent for a livelihood. The monsoon is crucial for the yield of rice, wheat, sugarcane, and oilseeds in a country where farming accounts for about 15% of the economy but employs over half of its people.
In the past 20 years, the monsoon has arrived earlier in the capital than its expected date five times. In 2001, it arrived on June 24; in 2008 on June 15 ; in 2011 on June 26 ; in 2013 on June 16 and in 2015 on June 25 .
The normal arrival date of the monsoon over Delhi is June 27. It was June 29 until last year but was revised by the IMD this year based on monsoon data from 1961 to 2019.
Till last year, historical rainfall data from 1901-1940 from 149 weather stations was considered for calculating the monsoon arrival and withdrawal dates. New monsoon onset and withdrawal dates were announced by IMD in April as the old dates did not represent the actual monsoon trends.
“We are expecting very good rains over north-west India this monsoon. Monsoon is setting in in Delhi, but it can be declared on Thursday after collating the 24-hour rainfall data,” said Mrutunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
IMD, in its long-range monsoon forecast, has predicted good rains in north-west India this monsoon at 107% of the long-period average (LPA) of 61.5 cm.
LPA is the average of rainfall received in the area over a 50-year period between 1961 and 2010.
“In recent decades our data has shown that monsoon arrives earlier than normal in many parts of northwest India. Monsoon is also covering the entire country by July 8 compared to July 15 considered to be normal earlier. But monsoon arrival is slightly delayed in some parts of central India in recent years. Based on all these trends we have released new onset and withdrawal dates this year,” said D S Pai, senior scientist at IMD Pune. “This year, however, monsoon progression is near normal in almost all parts of the country,” he added.
A trough of low pressure is running from northwest Rajasthan to south Bihar at lower tropospheric levels. It is very likely to be close to the Himalayan foothills from Thursday onwards.
“Hence, conditions are becoming favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of Rajasthan, remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh, entire Chandigarh and Delhi, most parts of Haryana and Punjab during next 24 hours,” IMD said in its bulletin on Wednesday.
