Number Theory: What will a BJP-BJD alliance mean in Odisha?

The BJD is perhaps the only regional political party in a major Indian state where the party's leadership will not be passed on to someone within the family

An alliance between the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Odisha seems to be on the cards. Neither the BJP nor the BJD have refuted the reports that it is happening. Were the alliance to happen; it would be unique in not just Odisha’s but also India’s political history as the BJP and BJD are the main political competitors in the state. How will it change politics? Here are three charts which explain this in detail.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi being welcomed by Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik upon his arrival at Chandikhol, in Jajpur district, on March 5 (PTI)

What will a BJP-BJD alliance mean in Odisha

• 
  How strong will a BJP-BJD alliance be?

  The BJP and the BJD had a combined vote share of 81.1% and 77.2% respectively in the 2019 Lok Sabha and assembly elections, which were held together. The combined seat share of the two parties was 95.2% and 92.5% respectively. If the combined vote share of these two parties holds even after an alliance in 2024, this will be among the biggest ever, if not the biggest victory for any alliance or party at the level of a major state. More on this later.
• 
  The BJP and the BJD have been partners in the past

  Not only has the BJD not displayed hostility towards the BJP under the second Modi government – it has supported the government on many key legislations and even helped BJP ministers in getting elected to the Rajya Sabha – it was among the most important constituents of the first National Democratic Alliance (NDA) crafted under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. An alliance with the BJD helped the BJP open its account in Odisha for the first time, and the alliance won all elections in Odisha between the 1998 and 2004 Lok Sabha polls. The BJD walked out of the NDA just before the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, which was the BJP’s worst performance after 1989 at the all-India level.
• 
  What happened after the BJD broke ranks with the BJP in Odisha

  It was the BJP which suffered the biggest losses at first. Its Lok Sabha and assembly seat share fell by 33 and 18 percentage points, while both the BJD and the Congress made gains at the cost of the BJP. However, things changed by the 2014 elections as far as the No 2 position in the state was concerned. While the BJD increased its political dominance in the state in 2014, the BJP narrowed its vote share gap vis-a-vis the Congress and managed to get more seats than it in the Lok Sabha elections. This trend continued in 2019, and the BJP not only decimated the Congress to become the clear number two party, it also narrowed its gap with the BJD. The biggest question which a BJD-BJP alliance raises is whether this can revive the Congress which, if the BJP-BJD do come together in an alliance, will now have a virtual monopoly as far as the Opposition space in the state is concerned.
• But the BJD might be looking at the alliance from a different perspective

  BJD is perhaps the only regional political party in a major Indian state where the leadership of the party will not eventually be passed on to someone within the family. While Naveen Patnaik's political career was a function of him being Biju Patnaik’s son, he has not appointed anybody from his extended family as the heir apparent of the party, and the second most important position has been given to a former bureaucrat, VK Pandian, who is not even from Odisha. With the BJP having established itself as a serious political force in Odisha and the hegemonic party at the national level, the BJD and Naveen Patnaik might be thinking of the alliance to safeguard his legacy rather than worry about a potential revival of the crisis-ridden Congress in the state.