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Prashant Kishor gets it right, sort of: Jan Suraaj's zero matches his prediction, but JD(U) tally poses question for PK
“Jan Suraaj is either on the sky or the floor,” PK had said. It's his other prediction that could raise a big question: will he quit politics over JD(U) tally?
Prashant Kishor, who made bluster his brand in his debut as a fulltime politician in Bihar, faces an uncertain future now. And that's not just because his Jan Suraaj Party failed miserably to make any impact.
In fact, on that count PK was right — he'd said the JSP would get "less than 10 or above 150, nothing in between”, in the 243-seat House.
Jan Suraaj Party stood at zero leads, as of 11.30 am. “I have said many times before, Jan Suraaj is either on the sky or on the floor,” he had told HT.
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But it's his other prediction that could raise a big question.
'Will quit politics if…'
The strategist-turned-leader said in dozens of interviews that Nitish Kumar's JD(U) will not get more than 25 seats, and Nitish will not be CM.
PK said he would quit politics if the JD(U) prediction turned out to be false.
The JD(U), as per trends by 2 pm, was getting more than 80 seats, meaning Nitish's standing with the BJP inside the NDA gets solidified too even though PM Modi's BJP is ahead in numbers.
Analysts said Nitish was the factor that would take the NDA much beyond its 2020 victory margins, beyond even three-fourth majority.
All this would mean Nitish, 74, is stronger than ever, politically, even when his health is of some concern lately. His becoming CM, at least for now, looked certain.
PK had not yet reacted to his party's performance, and to whether or not he would indeed quit politics now.
Jan Suraaj Party spokesperson Pavan K Varma said the party would undertake a "serious review" of its performance.
PK was once made vice-president of the party by Nitish, after he aided the JD(U)'s win as part of the Mahagathbandhan against the NDA in 2015. He left to return to advising parties in Bengal and some southern states, and returned to Bihar as a politician last year, 10 years after he shot to limelight as a key campaign adviser for Narendra Modi when he first became PM in 2014.
For Bihar 2025, PK had made no predictions about others, such as the BJP, as he had got it majorly wrong during the Lok Sabha election of 2024. He had predicted the the BJP in 2024 could win close to, even surpass, its 2019 tally of 303. PM Modi retained power after the 2024 contest, but the BJP fell short of majority on its own.
What PK said in interview
In an interview to HT during the Bihar poll campaign, Prashant Kishor was asked what he thought was drawing crowds to Jan Suraaj offices and rallies.
“This is a desire for change. And after many years, people have found a way, an alternative,” he said then. “They have now found hope in Jan Suraaj. That is why you can see the crowd. It is not the power of Prashant Kishor. It is the power of the desire for a political alternative.”
He did acknowledge that Nitish was a factor in some ways. “Someone who had such a big political legacy and journey, his utility cannot end, but it is completely diminished,” he said.
As to why he did not contest a seat, he said that was “purely a physical limitation”.
“It’s not that I don’t have people — I have many people. But a single person has to do all this sometimes… whereas in other parties, the parties that are already organised, they have a system," he explained.
His party gave nominees for all 243 seats, with around five candidates withdrawing or their nomination papers rejected.
About his prediction of “less than 10, or above 150”, he was asked who will win if his party did not.
“If I stay below 10, then a hung government will be formed... The reason is that last time also, both NDA and Mahagathbandhan were equal. But this time, we’ll disturb their poll prospects,” he had claimed.
“Now, the public has to decide whether to elect educated, intelligent doctors, engineers, social workers, politicians, officers, professors, mafia, alcohol, corrupt people. If the public elects the wrong people, then they should be prepared that the system will continue like this or worse,” he had further said, pitching himself as the progressive option.
