Number Theory: Will caste-based redistribution pitch have political traction-II

.

The first part of this series looked at the link between caste and asset inequality in India using AIDIS data and found that while the OBC, SC and ST population has a much smaller share in asset ownership than the population, the extent of relative asset poverty among OBCs is much lower than what it is for the SC-ST population.

When the Congress suffered its worst-ever defeats in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party lagged behind the BJP among all major social groups (REUTERS)

But is caste the only determinant of asset inequality in India? Here is what the AIDIS data tells us about this question.

Will caste-based redistribution pitch have political traction-II

• 
  Rural-urban divide matters when it comes to asset inequality

  Whether one lives in a city or a village also plays a big role in determining asset inequality in India. Just 31% of the population in AIDIS is located in urban areas but it owns 46% of the total assets, which makes its relative share in asset ownership 1.5 compared to just 0.8 in rural areas. In fact, a slightly deeper analysis of AIDIS data shows that social hierarchies change significantly when it comes to asset inequality in rural and urban areas. OBCs, for example, have a proportionate share in asset ownership in rural areas and their overall relative share being lower than one is a reflection of their relative asset poverty in urban areas. To be sure, persons who do not belong to SC-ST-OBC categories have a much higher relative share than OBCs in both rural and urban areas.
• 
  The rural-urban divide is essentially a reflection of asset inequality across professions

  An analysis of professional break-up (the survey just classifies households by their biggest source of income in the past year) of the richest 10% asset holders makes it clear in the AIDIS data. 55.5% of the OBC population, who live in the top 10% richest households, listed self-employment in agriculture as their main source of household income. Only 18% listed a regular wage or salaried job as their main source of income. For the overall population, these numbers are 46.8% and 21.5%. For those among SC, ST, OBC castes, these numbers are 39.8% and 24.1%. Given that OBCs are relatively scarce among those who have made their fortunes in salaried jobs, an argument can be made that the promise of increasing reservations might make them vote for a party which is championing this issue. Can the Congress hope to improve its chances in 2024 based on this agenda?
• 
  Congress’s political problems are hardly confined to OBCs

  While the Congress is selling the demand for a caste census as a game-changing idea for a very large share of the electorate, its political appeal and therefore, any potential gains should primarily be limited to OBCs. This is because SCs and STs already have proportionate reservations in India and it is OBC reservation which had to be capped at 27% because of the 50% limit. Can this bring about a revival of Congress’s fortunes? Data from National Election Studies conducted by CSDS-Lokniti suggests it may be difficult. The Congress was only marginally ahead of the BJP among OBCs in the 2004 and 2009 elections – the Congress finished with more seats than the BJP In these elections – and its main lead over the BJP came with a much bigger advantage among SC and ST voters. In the 2014 and 2019 elections, when the Congress suffered its worst-ever defeats and the BJP earned consecutive parliamentary majorities, the party lagged behind the BJP among all major social groups. Lokniti data also shows that movement in support for the Congress across elections follows the same trend across social groups.