E-Paper
Do 'cynics' hold the key in Lanka polls?
Centre for Policy Alternatives' recent pre-poll survey may be causing jitters among political parties.
A recent pre-poll survey by the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) may be
causing jitters among Sri Lanka's mainstream political parties fighting the
April 2 parliamentary elections.
The survey conducted in all the 22 districts of the country, barring those
areas held by the rebel LTTE, found that cynics were the single largest
category.
Cynics are those who say that neither the United Peoples' Freedom Alliance
(UPFA) led by President Chandrika Kumaratunga, nor the United National
Front (UNF) led by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, can deliver the goods.
In Sri Lanka, this category cannot be ignored because cynics do vote.The
polling percentage is above 80% on an average. The problem is that there is
no knowing which way they will vote.
Take any issue, a substantial percentage of the respondents said that
neither the UPFA nor the UNF would be able to solve the problem.
Asked about the ability to preserve law and order, 45.1% said that neither
the UPFA nor the UNF had it. And this was the single largest category. 36.8%
said that UPFA had the ability. Only 18.1% reposed faith in the UNF in this
matter.
As regards the ability to provide health and education, again the "neither"
category was the single largest (43.2%). 36.6% said that UPFA could do it
while only 20.2% said that the UNF was capable of delivering the goods.
On the issue of combating corruption, again the cynics were in the lead,
constituting 49.6%. 36.2% said that the UPFA could combat corruption.The
UNF came a poor third with only 14.2%.
On the question of reducing unemployment, 44..2% said that neither UPFA nor
UNF would be able to reduce it.Among those with faith, 36.45 opted for
UPFA and 19.4% for UNF.
As regards reducing the cost of living, 46.2% said that neither party would
be able to reduce it.35.5% said that UPFA could do it, while only 18.5%
said that UNF could.
Even on the issue of the peace process, the cynics constituted the single
largest category. 39.1% said that neither party would be able to carry on
the process satisfactorily. 32.6% reposed faith in the ability of the UNF. The UPFA came third with 28.3%. This is the only category in which the UNF scored over UPFA.
UPFA supporters hope that given the fact that the general trend is in favour of the UPFA rather than the UNF (going by their individual scores on various issues), the cynics or the undecided, will swim along with the current and vote for UPFA. But UNF supporters say that there is no room for such assumptions.
Supporters of minor parties like the Jathika Hela Urumaya, a party of Buddhist monks, trying to establish the pristine Buddha Raja Dharma, hope to get the cynics' votes. The monks are in the fray because the mainstream parties have failed and betrayed the people, in turns, over the last fifty years.
However, the CPA survey says that 64% of the respondents disapproved of monks contesting elections. Only 27% approved of it. 9% had no view. On the
impact of the monks party on the two main parties, an ORG-MARG-SMART survey said that it could take 1% of the vote from each of the two main parties.
