Do or die election in Britain

The stakes in this poll are indeed high. For the first time dirty tricks are feared, writes Vijay Dutt.

The announcement of the general election on May 5 has sent the political temperature soaring with Tony Blair determined to record a third term win and Tory leader Michael Howard fighting to regain power for the party and thus also ensure that he does not lose his pre-eminence and be sent packing as a loser. The stakes are indeed high. For the first time, dirty tricks are feared.

Fraud, in the sub-continent style, is also forecast with six millions wanting to vote through postal ballots. Already six Birmingham councillors, all of them from the sub-continent, have been charged with forging postal ballots, through intimidation and fraud.

The anxiety of leaders can be seen from the fact that immediately after the formal announcement at 11.30 on Tuesday morning all of them Blair, Howard and Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy took to the air on whistle-stop tours covering large number of constituencies. None can afford to lose a day. They will be using helicopters and planes to reach as many voters as possible.

Labour and Tories will be spending millions of pounds on a hidden high-tech campaign to in over the 800,000 key voters in marginal seats who will in effect settle the general election outcome. Howard believes that if just two per cent of voters can be persuaded to switch from Labour in 165 marginals, the Tories would win an overall majority.

Labour on the other hand is spending two-thirds of £15 million campaign budget on this ground war rather than on billboard and newspaper advertisements. Already 5000 voters in each of 60 key marginals have been sent a DVD of messages from their Labour candidate and Tony Blair. I got a letter from my local Tory candidate three days before the election date announcement.

The immigration issue is one of the key factors and the Asians will be watching closely the policy pronouncements. Howard's rigid stand has already created doubts in the minds of the Asians. But, Blair was careful to say some time ago at a lunch meet with Indian community members that their contribution to the British society would be kept in mind when formulating immigration rules. He again said while announcing the election on Tuesday that the interest and future of those who live by rules would be looked after. It is clear that Howard is looking for solid support from the naturally conservative rural white voter. After all Muslim and Hindus voters affect just about 12 seats, apart from having some impact in around 40 fringe constituencies.

Blair and his colleagues are concerned about the loss of Muslim support because of the Iraq war. We can be sure of a number of overtures during the campaigning to win them over. In fact one person has claimed that Jack Straw offered him peerage in return for not standing against him. Straw has indeed problems as his constituency of Blackburn has a large number of Muslim voters, most being from Gujarat.

Binging with billions

It is now a serious problem, the binge-drinking epidemic sweeping the country is costing the taxpayer around £12 billion needed to deal with drink-related crimes. Over 19000 were victims of drink-related sex assaults last year. The other problem is that there are only 15 to 20 police officers to handle 100,000 youngsters creating lawlessness at ton centres across Britain.

Sociologists say that Britons with high-stress careers are increasingly turning to drink. Experts warn that alcohol problems are now common among top earners who have demanding jobs. Around eight million drink at levels that could damage their health and 3.8 million are dependent on alcohol. Luckily, the binge drinking culture has not affected Asians so far. In fact, the young Indian executives in the city told me that they could not even adjust to the pub culture, stopping with the boss after office hours for a pint or two before going home.

Meeting up with the past

It was a chance meeting with Ahsan Khan, the last but one youngest brother of Dilip Kumar at a show in Mayfair. Talking to him was like linking up with the past, when Dilip Kumar, Raj Kapoor and Dev Anand were young heroes, whose dress and hairstyle were copied by millions. Girls would drool and sigh. But surprisingly Khan was not dismissive of the present, as most of the older generation tends to be. Except when he said he liked Bimal Roy's Devdas. About the newer one he refused to comment except to say he left the hall after 45 minutes.

On the couch casting he was most forthright. It never was and would never be, women who come to the film world have always been mature enough to decide what they want and how they want to achieve their ambitions. I thought the answer was most diplomatic yet quite clear. Vintage, I should say.

Heard at Windsor

The wedding of Charles is being held on the day his grandmother's funeral took place three years ago.