India a threat?

American action has strengthened India's suspicions that no matter what - a leopard can't shed its spots, writes Binay Kumar.

To my mind the question is fanciful and highly presumptuous, but the latest demonstration of America's flatfooted diplomacy in the Indian subcontinent may have only helped to strengthen that rapidly gaining impression. The new maneuverings from Washington hardly came as a surprise though India's matching maturity has made many a face red in the Capitol.

It was hoping against hope when analysts, buoyed by the rapidly expanding ties in recent years between India and the United States, saw in Condoleezza Rice's visit to Delhi barely two weeks back opportunities for a progressive lifting of sanctions and closer defense cooperation between the two largest democracies who publicly declare themselves to be natural allies.

Perhaps the Americans feared that President Musharraf might get upset if relations and trade with India are seen to be too much on the upswing. The solution they came up with to keep both India and Pakistan happy reinforced the long standing mistrust of Washington in New Delhi. From a die-hard position of imposing sanctions against both for carrying out nuclear tests, Washington decided to take a u-turn and announced that it would offer to both military aircrafts capable of delivering nuclear warheads.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, the announcement from Washington does nothing more than resume deliveries of already committed F-16s stopped in 1990 after America embargoed military exports to Pakistan on suspicions of Islamabad developing nuclear weapons on the sly. And for India, the tactic was to offer even more once the expected protests from New Delhi reached The White House. The plot was thick with intrigue but it didn't roll out as palnned.

Of course, the logic was no brainer to anybody - kill two birds with the one stone. Keep Pakistan happy to stay in line in the so-called war on terror and at the same time open up the Indian military market to the American suppliers. And let them both feel grateful for this act of generosity.

But that was not to be. We were all surprised; perhaps as much taken aback as the Americans themselves, by the cool maturity of India's public reaction that has spoilt the America defense party in the subcontinent.

Making New Delhi's intentions amply clear, India's Defense Minister announced yesterday the decision of the government to go ahead and purchase 12 Mirage 2000 V fighter aircrafts from Qatar and 11 Dorniers from Germany for maritime surveillance, in addition to inducting nine offshore patrol vessels for the Indian navy, and a C-303 submarine-fired torpedo decoy system from Italy.

India moved swiftly to announce the names of other beneficiaries riding its unhappiness over the American decision. The British-built Sea Harriers were to be upgraded by fitting them with the latest air-to-air missiles from Israel. And the world knows about India's intention to acquire the French Mirage 2000-5s, Swedish JAS-39 Gripensn, and the Russian MiG-29s. The size of the immediate order being placed by India was small (less than half a billion dollars in all) but the message was loud and clear: the India market will be made difficult for American businesses if America doesn't mend its ways.

There is little doubt that US arms contractors are hoping to cash in on India's need to modernize its armed forces. That market has remained closed to them since 1974 when New Delhi first tested a nuclear device. That America was now trying to corner that market for itself is not too difficult to see. What amazes keen observers of international statecraft, however, is the shortsightedness of an administration that still goes by the rules of diplomacy written in the 60's and the 70's.

Besides myopia, America is also guilty of even a graver charge- of trying to profit from the long-standing rivalry between the nuclear-armed South Asian neighbors by fuelling an avoidable arms race between the two. In a hard-hitting editorial, the International Herald Tribune questioned the wisdom of American decision. It said, "In reviewing the new Pakistan arms sale policy, which overturns a 15-year-old ban imposed over concerns about Pakistani nuclear weapons activity, Congress should think hard about the messages the United States wants to send to future proliferators."

I think the most insightful comment came from a senior official at the Silicon Valley office of an Indian Engineering & IT company who requested to remain anonymous. He has spent the last fifteen years in this country chasing the American Dream on the waves of an IT revolution and outsourcing that has given him and his children a quality of life which is the envy of his many American neighbors. His pessimisms are palpable.

In his view, America is trying to escalate the arm race in the subcontinent because it perceives the expansion of the Indian market as a threat to its continued supremacy and super-power status. He argues, "By keeping India entangled in a never-ending game of one-upmanship with Pakistan, India's much needed resources for development would be consumed by the need to strengthen its defense. And without infrastructure development, there is a limit to the growth of the economy."

He was emphatic that the recent publication of a CIA dossier forecasting trends for the next 20 years in which India (alongwith China) is described as taking over the world order is part of the larger "American conspiracy to do to India 'a Japan!' Nobody talks of the Japanese economy anymore but we know who felt threatened by Japanese prosperity and what they did to stymie the Japanese dreams of reclaiming the world for themselves."

Once a business manger always a business manger. I am willing to overlook his straight jacketed approach to international politics which looks at nations as markets and its people as resources. The bottom-line, however, is that there is an element of truth in his fears; howsoever personal they may sound in his case, American action would only strengthen New Delhi's suspicions that, no matter what, a leopard can't shed its spots!