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Make or break for UP CM today

It is judgment day on Tuesday for the Mulayam Singh Yadav government in Uttar Pradesh.

india Updated: Feb 28, 2006 03:36 IST

It is judgment day on Tuesday for the Mulayam Singh Yadav government in Uttar Pradesh. The Lucknow bench of the Allahabad High Court is expected to rule in a case relating to the disqualification of 40 BSP legislators for defecting to the Samajwadi Party.

Several options are open before Mulayam Singh and the Opposition notwithstanding the fact that the party would go to the apex court.

The question haunting everyone is — will the government survive? The Opposition leader in the UP Assembly Lalji Tandon says, “We want the government to go, but it is difficult. The Assembly session has been on for the past three months, but only 10 sittings have been held.”

The government can always move a confidence motion to prove its majority on the floor of the House. The Governor will have no role to play though the Congress is banking on Raj Bhavan’s action in the matter. Chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, who was camping in Delhi, has summoned a meeting of all his legislators at 10 a.m. What if Mulayam moves a confidence motion and the Opposition may not be in full strenth to oppose it.

However, going by the strength of the parties in the post-verdict scenario, it is certain that the political fight would be close in either situations.

The scenarios: First, if the 39 BSP rebels are not disqualified, the government survives till mid-May. Though the term expires on February 2007, the first sitting of the house was held in May. It gets three more months to face the polls.

If the MLAs are disqualified, the government survives. The coalition’s strength falls from 236 to 197 in a house of 373. However, this is possible only if Mulayam manages to retain the support of the 15-member RLD, five unattached, 16 Independents and two each of the CPI and UP Loktantrik Congress and one of the Akhil Bharatiya Congress.

First Published: Feb 28, 2006 03:36 IST