Market Watch | Day of 'decoupling'
The king stumbled but the prince did not; merely faltered for a moment and then got back to his feet, writes Udayan Mukherjee.india Updated: Aug 29, 2007 20:43 IST
The king stumbled but the prince did not; merely faltered for a moment and then got back to his feet. If one could stretch yesterday endlessly into time, half our problems would be over.
Then we would be doing things on our own merit, not aping the terminally-ill US economy all the time. One hesitates to extrapolate or infer much from a single session of trade, yet the claw-back after a gap down opening looked very impressive, even significant.
While we did the best, even our other Asian peers came well off the intra-day lows in a remarkable show of decoupling. Hope it is a sign of things to come, not merely an attempt to orchestrate a bullish expiry to the derivatives series today.
The Nifty showed strength yesterday in bouncing back from 4,230 and closing above 4,350. If it can hold these levels going into the September series, the odds of the bulls seizing control are pretty high. The signs are positive.
If indeed politics has ceased to be a threat and the market has started snapping its correlation with the US gyrations, then that takes care of some of the most potent external or non-fundamental risks to our performance. Time will tell, but at least the initial signs are encouraging.
While spaces like infrastructure, banking, fertilisers and even metals have bounced back, real estate remains very volatile. It's almost as if the market is not quite comfortable with valuations for this sector, the way it sells off the moment sentiment weakens a bit.
Perhaps the perils of a 'new' sector, that too a fairly hyped one. Puravankara will be the newest addition to this list today and it may not be the glittering jewel in its crown. The management has done its image enough harm with the IPO pricing fiasco. There is a fair chance of the stock debuting at a discount, maybe around 370. After the initial punishment, which is deserved, institutional buyers could accumulate close to 350, which would represent a 15 per cent discount to its NAV.
That may be punishment enough. One hopes the lesson has been learnt though.
(The writer is Executive Editor, CNBC-TV 18)