E-Paper
Phase two: Heat and dust of close contests
The first phase of the elections over, several key states are bracing for the second. In Andhra Pradesh and Bihar the contest will be keen, but the NDA/BJP seems to have the edge over the Congress and its allies in Orissa and Karnataka. Team HT brings you reports from across the country, with likely scenarios in the second phase of Elections 2004.
Andhra Pradesh
In the first phase, the Telengana region (which accounts for 107 assembly seats and 15 Lok Sabha seats) alongwith north coastal Andhra Pradesh (40 assembly seats and 6 Lok Sabha seats) went to the polls. If the exit polls are correct, the Congress and its ally the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS) have done remarkably well in the first phase.
On April 26, Rayalseema (four districts) and east and west Godavari districts (147 assembly seats and 21 Lok Sabha seats) will go to the polls. The three regions of Andhra Pradesh -- Telengana, coastal and Rayalseema -- have different political compulsions. The demand for a separate Telengana state is an emotive issue for the rest of Andhra Pradesh. Now that the elections in the Telengana region are over, the Telugu Desam can draw political mileage from the issue. If that clicks, the party can return to power. The Congress has an advantage in the Rayalseema region, but it will have to work overtime to ensure that the Telengana issue does not gather momentum.
Orissa
On April 20, the western and southern regions of Orissa went to the polls. Of the 11 Lok Sabha seats there, the Congress had won two in the 1999 poll. While two exit polls expect a status quo, three surveys indicate a marginal increase in the Congress tally. The real battle will take place on April 26 in the coastal belt and Mayurbhanj (10 Lok Sabha seats and 77 Assembly seats). The Congress, which did not win a single seat from these areas, has nothing to lose.
In the assembly election, the BJP-BJD combine has a clear advantage. But the ruling combine's performance is greatly dependent on how rebel candidates perform. Over 40 are in the fray. The Congress has seat-adjustments with smaller parties like the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Orissa Gana Parishad and the Left, from which it can gain.
Bihar
In the first phase, 11 of 40 Lok Sabha seats went to the polls. While two of five surveys say that the Congress-RJD alliance will have to be content with the three seats that it had in 1999, three other surveys paint a better picture for the RJD-led alliance.
In the absence of issues, caste equations and muscle power determine results. RJD chief Laloo Prasad Yadav's new caste arithmetic — Yadavs, Muslims and Dalits (represented by Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party) — will be put to the test in the second and the third phase. On April 26, 17 seats will go to the polls and the remaining 12 seats will have elections on May 5.
In a state where caste combinations vary from seat to seat, chances of surveys going wrong are quite high. Considering that the BJP-JD (U) had won 30 of 40 seats in 1999, Laloo may improve his tally.
Karnataka
All surveys are unanimous in their opinion that Congress's citadel is crumbling. The BJP's dream of using the state as the gateway to south may be realised. Reports from Bangalore suggest that in the second phase of polling ((26 April) the electorate will be greatly influenced by the surveys. The BJP is set to make substantial gains.
Maharashtra
While one survey gives a clear advantage to the BJP-Shiv Sena combine, another survey favours the Congress-NCP. Three others predict a close fight. The first phase covered Vidarbha, part of Marathawada and parts of northern Maharashtra. The BJP-Shiv Sena had won 13 seats, the Congress 9 and others had two seats. In 1999, it was a triangular contest. This time, the Congress has forged alliances with NCP and others.
On April 26, the remaining areas (24 seats) will go to the polls. Sharad Pawar's NCP is considered influential in western Maharashtra (sugar belt) and the Konkan region. The party had won six seats from this region -- a division of votes between the Congress and NCP had given an advantage to the BJP-Shiv Sena combine. Mumbai is set to witness close contests in all six constituencies.
Gujarat/Chhattisgarh
Although pre-poll surveys predicted a complete rout of the Congress from these two BJP-ruled states, the exit polls indicate otherwise. The Congress had five seats from Gujarat. Its tally varies between 3 and 8. Similarly in Chhattisgarh, where the Congress had won 3 seats, the party's fortunes vary between 1 and 4 seats.
