Peak electricity requirement: UP may have to depend on power surplus states
Uttar Pradesh may have to depend on energy surplus states to meet its increasing electricity requirement in the coming months with the demand anticipated to be at its peak between August and OctoberUpdated: Aug 01, 2018 14:31 IST
Uttar Pradesh may have to depend on energy surplus states to meet its increasing electricity requirement in the coming months with the demand anticipated to be at its peak between August and October.
The Load Generation Balancing Report (LGBR)-2018 released by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) last weekend anticipates UP to be on the borderline in terms of meeting its electricity requirement on the annual basis. But the state, it warns, may have to face peak shortage to the extent of 17.5% during the current financial year.
“Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Karnataka, Assam and Puducherry are anticipated to have surplus on annual basis, only in terms of energy. For meeting the peak deficit, these states may arrange power from surplus states,” the report says.
As per the report, the peak demand for electricity in UP may touch 21,000 MW against the availability of 17,350% MW, the shortfall being 3,650 MW which is 17.4%. However, on an annual basis, the state is expected to have surplus power, even though marginally so at 0.5%.
“By peak demand, we mean demand recorded at any particular instance during the year while by energy demand we mean an average demand that is likely to be there in a state during year, taking into account the likely power consumption and availability of power,” CEA chief engineer (grid management) Dinesh Chandra explained over the phone from Delhi.
He said the CEA prepared the LGBR every year on the data provided by the states’ load dispatch centres. The report, he said, took into account only the firm power, the power that is available to a state on regular basis from various sources and the power they purchase from time to time to meet their emergency requirement.
“UP may have to buy additional power from power surplus states through the energy exchange to meet the peak demand,” Chandra said.
As per the LGBR forecast, the demand in UP may peak between August and October when the state might experience the peak demand-supply gap but also in terms of energy requirement during the period. The state may face a peak shortage of 15.7% and energy deficit of 4.5% in August, which may further go up to 17.4% and 8.5% respectively in September. In October, it is expected to be 11.7% and 3.2%, respectively.
“It simply means the state may have to experience substantial load shedding unless additional power is purchased to meet the load,” said a UPPCL official. “The LGBR forecast has been, by and large, correct for months between April and July,” the official added.
The report has anticipated that during year 2018-19, there will be energy surplus of 4.6% (61.7 BU) and peak surplus of 2.5% (4.4 GW) in the country.
According to the LGBR, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Daman & Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Goa, Damodar Valley Corporation, West Bengal, Manipur, Meghalaya, Tripura, Andhra Pradesh and Sikkim are likely to have both peaking and energy surplus on annual basis.
Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Karnataka, Assam and Puducherry are anticipated to have surplus on annual basis, only in terms of energy. For meeting peak deficit, these states, report says, may arrange power from surplus states. All other states in the country, says the LGBR are likely to have demand-supply gap of varying degrees both in term of energy and peaking, which can be met by arranging power from surplus states through various market mechanisms.
The states of Delhi (37.3%), Haryana(29.9%), Rajasthan (29.7% ) (Punjab (22.5%), HP (13.0%) are expected to the biggest power-surplus states on an annual basis.
“Considering the possible situation in these neighbouring states, UP’s expected negligible 0.5% energy surplus means nothing. UP may have to look up to these states only to fulfill its power requirement,” people familiar with the matter said.