Analysis by TIFR shows dip in infection rate since April 11 | Mumbai news - Hindustan Times
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Analysis by TIFR shows dip in infection rate since April 11

By, Mumbai
May 06, 2020 11:54 PM IST

An analysis by Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) shows Covid-19’s rate of infection has decreased from April 11 onwards. TIFR’s findings indicate one Covid-positive individual in Mumbai is likely to have infected two people.

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Based on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery (SEIR) statistical model, TIFR’s analysis found that from April 11 till date, the R0 (R nought) measure for Covid-19 was at 2.2. R0, also known as the reproduction number, is a measure of how many people may be infected by one patient. On April 29, HT had reported that between March 31 and April 14, Covid-19’s reproduction number in Mumbai was around R3.4.

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Professor Sourendu Gupta of TIFR said the numbers suggest the lockdown has been effective in Mumbai, which recorded its highest single-day spike on Wednesday. The total number of positive cases in Mumbai is now 10,714.

TIFR’s analysis shows that the doubling time of fatality and infection rates has decreased in the range of seven to nine days. Between March 31 and April 14, the doubling time for infection and fatality rates were estimated to be from 5.3 to 5.7 days.

“For a city like Mumbai with a huge population, 10,000 is not a large number if one just thinks of it as an infection. But one has to think about the circumstances around it in terms of how many have died or need medical help,” said Gupta. “Unless, the infection rates are brought down further, the healthcare infrastructure will be overwhelmed,” he added.

Dr Abhay Chowdhary, former director of Haffkine Institute of Research and Training, Parel, who was not involved in TIFR’s analysis, said, “Testing has definitely increased, but the doubling rate of infection shows that the curve is still slowly moving upwards.”

Stating that contract tracing should continue in Mumbai and testing should be made more broadly available, Gautam Menon, professor of biology and physics at Ashoka University, who was not involved with the study, said the lockdown has served to stem the rapid increase in the numbers of infections in Mumbai.

“However, as long as the numbers of new cases continue to increase, the epidemic will restart unless steps to cut the chain of transmission continue after the lockdown,” said Menon, also adjunct faculty at the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research. “To control the epidemic citizens should voluntarily accept the need for physical distancing, wearing masks, and workplaces adopting staggered working hours wherever possible.”

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  • ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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    Snehal Fernandes is senior assistant editor at Hindustan Times, Mumbai. She writes on science and technology, environment, sustainable development, climate change, and nuclear energy. In 2012, she was awarded ‘The Press Club Award for Excellence in Journalism’ (Political category) for reports on Goa mining scam. Prior to HT, she wrote on education and transport at the Indian Express.

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