City sees 89% spike in deaths in May

Contrary to the trends in March and April, the city saw a total of 12,963 deaths (both Covid and non-Covid) in May, 89% more than the 6,832 deaths recorded in May

Contrary to the trends in March and April, the city saw a total of 12,963 deaths (both Covid and non-Covid) in May, 89% more than the 6,832 deaths recorded in May 2019, leading to questions from the Opposition as well as experts if all Covid-19 patients are being identified and whether a lot of the unidentified patients have died at home. Municipal commissioner IS Chahal, however, attributed the surge to the higher influx of patients to the city, reconciliation of figures and the Covid-19 cremation protocol.

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According to the state figures, Mumbai recorded 989 Covid-19 deaths in May. On June 16, the government added 862 backlogged deaths to the Covid-19 toll, of which some had occurred in May.

Similarly, until July 3, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) added 751 backlogged deaths, some of which were from May, to the toll.

However, even if one were to deduct the backlogged figures, the number of total deaths reported in Mumbai in May would remain significantly higher than the May 2019 figure.

In March, the city saw 5,669 deaths, against the 7,155 deaths reported in the same month last year. Similarly, 5,536 deaths were registered in Mumbai in April, a decline from the 6,752 deaths recorded in April 2019.

The data raises questions over the possible reasons for the increase in fatalities in the city, with some even alleging the city is witnessing a higher number of Covid-19 deaths than what are being registered.

“When Covid-19 patients from the Mumbai Metropolitan Region or other parts of Maharashtra such as Ahmednagar, Jalgaon or Nashik were shifted to Mumbai for treatment during April, May and June, they were registered as Covid-19 cases in their respective hometowns. But if the patient died, he/she had to be cremated in Mumbai owing to the strict protocol for Covid-19 deaths and the patient’s death was counted in Mumbai. This was not the case before the Covid-19 outbreak, but now we have to abide by the safety norms,” said Chahal.

The civic commissioner said 12,000-plus death toll in May comes from the crematorium records.

“Our death records are not as per the Indian Council of Medical Research website, but from the crematorium records. I can give an example of a former Member of Parliament who the BMC airlifted from his hometown after he tested positive [for Covid-19]. He died during treatment in Mumbai and was cremated at the Chandanwadi crematorium. If you search for his name in ICMRs’s records, he will be registered as a Covid patient in his hometown, but his death is registered here,” said Chahal.

Chahal, while pointing at the example of Sion hospital, said 54% of deaths at the hospital in May and June are of patients from other cities.

“It seems logical that these death figures show there are undiscovered Covid-19 patients, whose deaths were attributed to other causes as they were not known to be positive. But even if that’s the case, why are the numbers high in May, and not in April and March, when our testing capacity was lower. It is still unclear,” said a senior doctor working with the Maharashtra government.

Dr Shashank Joshi, a member of the task force of nine doctors appointed by the state in April to control the fatality rate in Maharashtra, said, “My feeling is March deaths and April deaths got pulled into May, which is why we see an artificial rise in May. Partly, the Covid-19 factor is also responsible. I do not agree that unidentified Covid-19 patients who died at their homes were counted as non-Covid deaths. Because of the lockdown, a lot of non-Covid patients, suffering from hypertension, diabetes, heart and other ailments did not access medical care in March and April and probably died in May.”

Dr Joshi said such a trend was also witnessed in New York. “A lot of heart patients, who were not Covid-19 patients, died at home because they could not access healthcare as they were scared to visit hospitals. It is time the government focused equally on non-Covid healthcare, too,” he said.

Public health expert Dr Sanjay Pattiwar said many elective surgeries in March and April were deferred and some patients, who were scheduled for surgery, subsequently died in May.

Earlier this month, leader of the Opposition in Assembly, Devendra Fadnavis, alleged the government has not accounted for around 600 Covid-19 deaths of patients who died outside hospitals.

Earlier this week, Chahal told HT that BMC has initiated an investigation to find out the number of patients who died at home. “In March and April, test results were delayed by many days. A patient who gave his swab on April 14 got his result on April 22. He died before the test result came. Such deaths will also be examined and counted as Covid-19 deaths now,” the municipal commissioner said.

On Sunday, Mumbai recorded 1,037 new cases and 64 deaths. The total number of Covid-19 cases in the city now stands at 101,388, even as the toll reached 5,714. Currently, the city has 23,697 active Covid-19 cases.