Clash of titans: Old guard takes on new blood

Two days before the election was announced, chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, 49, wrapped up his state-wide tour, Mahajanadesh Yatra, in which he travelled through

Two days before the election was announced, chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, 49, wrapped up his state-wide tour, Mahajanadesh Yatra, in which he travelled through 155 Assembly constituencies and tried to reach out to people. Confident of returning to power, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) put all its efforts to reach maximum possible areas to send a message that the Fadnavis government has performed well and needs to be elected again.

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On the other hand, for the past few weeks, 78-year-old Sharad Pawar, chief of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and a veteran of many political battles, is travelling across Maharashtra, trying to connect with people, revive the party organisation that is in a bad shape following the rout in the Lok Sabha elections as well as a series of defections, and appealing to them to vote BJP-Shiv Sena out of power.

The political tussle between the two also symbolises the fight between the old guard and the new order. The Congress-NCP brand of politics is fighting the aggressive and newer brand of politics of BJP-Fadnavis. Since 1960, when the state was formed, Maharashtra was ruled by the Congress or parties that shared a similar ideology. As such, the politics and governance did not see major changes. It was largely based on agriculture and rural economy though several chief ministers promoted industries in the state. The politics was significantly influenced by the cooperative sector and rural politics. The political enmity was based on issues, with rival sides giving enough space to each other.

Even the first Shiv Sena-BJP alliance government that ruled between 1995 and 1999 did not deviate much from this brand of politics, as it was supported by around 40 independent legislators, many of whom came from the Congress and the cooperative sector background. Many of these independent legislators were followers of Pawar and later joined the NCP when he floated the party in 1999.

In the past three decades, Maharashtra politics largely revolved around Pawar and Sena founder late Bal Thackeray, with the former often calling the shots in the state.

Others who played the role included Pramod Mahajan, Gopinath Munde (both from the BJP), Vilasrao Deshmukh, Sushilkumar Shinde (both from the Congress), Manohar Joshi, Chhagan Bhujbal and Narayan Rane (all three were in Sena, but the latter two later defected to the Congress).

Things have started changing since 2014 when the Fadnavis-led government took over in Maharashtra. The BJP has its own agenda to win over the state, which was for long a Congress bastion. The Fadnavis government was not relying on legislators from Congress ideology for support. Though it was short of a majority, Fadnavis obtained the support of Sena, which was ideologically closer to the BJP.

Unlike most of his predecessors, Fadnavis had a free hand to execute his plans. He is following the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah guidelines to demolish the Opposition ruthlessly. In the past five years, he ensured that the old system supporting Pawar and the Congress brand of politics did not retain its hegemony.

The cooperative sector that formed the backbone of the Congress-NCP support base is facing a raft of legal cases over allegations of corruption and irregularities.

Another political player who has assumed significance is Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray who took over the reins of the party from his father, late Bal Thackeray. If the saffron combine returns to power, the duo would continue to dominate the political stage in Maharashtra.

Change in factors influencing politics

Two factors have gone against the old order and helped in the establishment of the new one: the growing influence of urban voters and changes in the agriculture-based rural economy.

Roughly, half the population in Maharashtra lives in urban areas. More than 100 out of the 288 Assembly constituencies in the state are in urban or semi-urban areas. While the Sena was always seen as an urban party, the BJP has been quick to strengthen its base in urban areas. The state government’s focus on building infrastructure in cities, the Modi factor and reach of social media has helped Fadnavis catch the imagination of the urban voter. A majority of legislators and MPs from Mumbai and other cities in Maharashtra are from the BJP, signifying the party’s hold over the urban voter.

On the other hand, in the past few years, the population in rural areas is trying to reduce its dependence on agriculture owing to the uncertainty. Scanty rainfall and fluctuating crop prices have badly impacted the income of farmers in several parts of rural Maharashtra. Younger members of farmers’ families are turning to jobs. This has led to a decline in the influence of the cooperative sector which was already in trouble due to mismanagement by those who have been controlling it for decades. It hit the political base of Pawar and Congress. The scams in cooperative and irrigation sector worsened the situation further for the Opposition.

Will there be a fierce battle?

“The BJP-Sena combine has been quick to adopt the strategies with the changing times. The Congress-NCP failed to do the same and hence, suffered a setback. They need to realise why urban voters are standing solidly behind Fadnavis-Thackeray,” opines Hemant Desai, a political analyst. “The Congress-NCP leaders focused on the rural areas, but did not pay attention to urban and semi-urban areas. Even in rural areas, their politics was becoming outdated. The generational shift in state politics is coinciding with these changes and it suits the BJP-Sena better,” he adds. With Pawar taking the initiative to counter the BJP in Maharashtra, leaders from the Congress and smaller Opposition parties are likely to rally around him. Pawar is likely to again rope in Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray to attack the ruling parties. Both main Opposition parties are working out strategies to fight the ruling parties. The next few days will show how good or bad their strategies are.

As the elections were announced on Saturday, the ruling combine seems better placed to win the electoral battle. The Fadnavis government has been listing its ‘achievements’ — from farm loan waiver to massive infrastructure-building work to Maratha reservation — to woo voters. The scrapping of Article 370 in Kashmir is also being used as an added punch to floor the Opposition. So far, the Opposition has been unable to come up with a strong campaign to counter the same. Little wonder then that Fadnavis-Thackeray look confident. If he returns to power, Fadnavis’ influence on state politics will increase. He will also try to establish total control of the new order. Will it mean the decisive end of the Congress-NCP brand of politics in Maharashtra? We will probably get answers on October 24 when the votes are counted.