Mumbai’s Covid-19 cases continue to slide after the peaks

After witnessing two peaks in its Covid-19 cases graph, since the pandemic began in March, Mumbai has seen a steady decline in infections over the past few weeks.

After witnessing two peaks in its Covid-19 cases graph, since the pandemic began in March, Mumbai has seen a steady decline in infections over the past few weeks. The city has recorded fewer than 1,000 Covid-19 cases daily since November 1. The dip comes after infections in Mumbai spiked in May, September and the first half of October, with 2,848 cases being reported on October 7 – the highest so far in 24 hours in the city.

Mumbai has recorded fewer than 1,000 Covid-19 cases daily since November 1. (HT Photo)

While the drop in cases can partly be attributed to reduced number of tests being conducted, health experts said the positivity rate coming down to 15.9% this week from 18.7% in September also indicates an overall dip in infections in Mumbai. Positivity rate is the number of Covid-19-positive cases from the total tests conducted.

Mumbai has so far conducted 1,707,237 tests (as of November 17), and has 270,660 cases. In September and October, there were around 17,000 tests conducted daily in the city, and in the past few weeks, this number has dropped to around 4,000.

“We should be testing more in Mumbai if we compare the number of tests to the city’s population. Mumbai’s maximum capacity to conduct tests is around 20,000. In the past week, testing has reduced, but that is also because there are fewer infections. Who will you test, if there are fewer people infected,” said Dr Shashank Joshi, member of Maharashtra government’s task force to reduce Covid-19 mortality in the state.

Suresh Kakani, additional municipal commissioner in-charge of Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation’s (BMC) public health department, too, said the situation in Mumbai has definitely improved. “We are seeing fewer Covid-19 cases every day in November. We also have more vacant hospital beds. But we are in wait-and-watch mode right now.”

As of Wednesday, Mumbai has 71%, or 12,529, of 17,467 hospital beds vacant, while 4,938 beds are occupied.

A senior civic official, on condition of anonymity, said the burden on hospitals has also reduced as cases have gone down in November. “We have informally directed all hospital administrations to grant doctors leave of absence if they apply for it and wish to rest and recover from the fatigue of the previous eight-nine months. Right now, they have scope to do so, as after the festival season, post-Diwali, Christmas and New Year’s, cases may go up again,” said the official.

Kakani, too, said the next month will be crucial. “Despite the present scenario, we are on alert owing to unlock of restrictions and the festival season. Our core strategy – of testing, quarantining and ensuring sufficient hospital beds are available – remains in place. I would say we have to wait and watch until the end of December,” said Kakani.

The civic administration is expecting yet another peak in cases in the coming weeks. Another senior civic official, who did not wish to be named, said, “Although we thought September was the second wave, BMC is not categorising it as a wave. It was a peak. This is because prior to September, Mumbai’s daily cases did not drastically fall. Only cases being reported over the next few days will determine if there will be the second wave, or it will be yet another peak in Mumbai.”

While the administration is hoping herd immunity kicks in and helps keep Covid-19 cases fewer, officials have also noticed that citizens, who tested positive in the first few months after the pandemic broke out in March, still have antibodies to fight the infection. Herd immunity is used to describe the indirect protection conferred to a population in which the majority of people have natural or acquired immunity to an infection.

The BMC conducted two rounds of sero survey in Mumbai’s slum and non-slum residences in Chembur, Matunga, Sion and Dahisar. The results of the survey conducted in August indicated that 45% among those tested in slums had Covid-19 antibodies and 18% among those tested from non-slums had antibodies. The results of the survey conducted in July indicated that 57% among those tested in slums had Covid-19 antibodies and 16% among those tested from non-slums had antibodies.