Recoveries rise at a faster pace, active cases go up slowly: BMC

Number of recoveries in the city rose by 9,424; active cases have risen by only 1,381, shows data

While the number of recoveries in the city rose by 9,424 over the past 11 days, the active cases have risen by only 1,381, according to data collated by the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC).

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BMC data shows that 25,152 patients recovered from Covid-19 on June 12, which increased to 34,576 on June 23. On June 13, the city had 28,682 active Covid-19 patients, which went up to 30,063 on June 23. The number of new daily cases has not crossed 1,560 between June 13 and 23.

Health experts from the civic body attributed the rise in recovery rate to higher testing – 4,500 tests every day. “Although it is still early to say, we are witnessing a gradual fall in the number of Covid-19 cases. As more patients are getting discharged, the recovery rate has gone higher,” said Dr Daksha Shah, deputy health officer, BMC.

Patients infected with the Sars-Cov-2 virus that causes Covid-19 take up to two to four weeks to recover from the infection. Health officials said as days pass, the curve of active cases will typically stay behind the curve of recovered patients. “In May, we had quarantined a large number of people from containment zones. Now, after 14 days of isolation, we are releasing them after they test negative,” said Shah.

When the lockdown was relaxed on June 8, civic officials speculated that easing of restrictions was likely to add to the already rising number of cases. “With rising awareness, citizens are following safety rules such as physical distancing and wearing masks. This pattern is visible all across the country. Although we took time to surpass the rate of active patients due to the huge population, we have finally achieved it,” said Suresh Kakani, additional commissioner, BMC.

Most countries with the highest caseload have more recovered cases than active cases, with the United States an exception. Among the 50 countries with the highest case count, India ranks 29 in terms of recovery rate, according to Johns Hopkins University. The recovery rate in Germany is 91%, Turkey 84%, Israel 83%, Iran 78%, Italy 71%, Spain 62% and Russia 49%.

Doctors said the number of recoveries is expected to continue to rise compared to active infections in the coming days, unless there is a sudden explosion of new cases during the monsoon.

“We have to be more cautious with the arrival of the monsoon. We don’t know how this virus will react to the season,” said Dr Om Srivastava, an epidemiologist who is part of the state Covid-19 task force. “The next one week will be important to understand the pattern.”