Study of 30 years by IMD: ‘No rain in north Maharashtra in 60% of monsoon’

A rainfall variability study by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that over the past 30 years, northern parts of Maharashtra witnessed no rainfall

A rainfall variability study by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that over the past 30 years, northern parts of Maharashtra witnessed no rainfall during 60% of the monsoon. The IMD, Pune, released the report on Saturday.

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After analysing changes in rainfall pattern for different states over 30 years (1989-2018), the IMD found that an average of 290-300 days in a year remain dry across Akola, Buldhana, Washim, Wardha, Jalna and Aurangabad, across 15 districts in Marathwada and north-central Maharashtra. The study by IMD on the impact of climate change also found that a maximum of 71 to 79 out 122 days (the duration of the southwest monsoon, from June to September) remained dry.

Only Palghar district in Maharashtra showed a significant increasing trend in southwest monsoon and annual rainfall while Aurangabad and Parbhani showed a significant decreasing trend.

Mrutunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD, said, “The report gives state authorities an impetus for future planning, developing strategies, and a roadmap to address impacts of location-wise weather changes.”

Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) secretary M Rajeevan warned about water stress.

“We must realise that while this is a 30-year analysis, the trends may not continue in the future as we are witnessing year-on-year or short duration changes as well. However, if this trend continues, there is definitely worry that rain-deficient districts in Maharashtra that are likely to suffer from water stress. The major impact will be for the agricultural sector,” he said.

During the monsoon months, Maharashtra gets 33% or maximum rain during July; 28% during August; 21% in June; and 18% September, the study found. Mean rainfall during monsoon has been 1,020.7mm and 1,146.5mm annually for the state, which means over 89% of annual rain is received during monsoon.

“The Konkan region receives on an average 60-70 rainy days out of 122 days during monsoon while Vidarbha gets 37-45 rainy days and central parts of Maharashtra gets even less than 37 rainy days,” the report said.

Monsoon and annual rainfall were highest along the Konkan coast (2,457mm - 3,538mm) while central Maharashtra and Marathwada received the lowest rainfall (454-600mm) in Maharashtra.

Ahmednagar received the lowest (591mm) and Sangli received the lowest seasonal rain tally at 454mm.

Mumbai suburbs and south Mumbai recorded 2,272.2mm and 2,040.8 mm respectively during monsoon and 2,396.7 mm and 2,146.1mm respectively, through the year.

Rajeevan said, “The threat from extreme weather events is expected to increase in coming years. Planning and infrastructure needs to be resilient to these changes.”

Annually, extremely heavy rain days for the Konkan region were between eight and 11 days during the monsoon while central Maharashtra got around 3-5 heavy to extremely heavy rainfall days on an average, during the 30-year study period.