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Chasing the monsoon, IMD in mission mode

ByPS Goel
Jan 16, 2025 09:18 PM IST

The launch of Mission Mausam aims to make us even bigger and better in the coming two years

In July 2006, when the ministry of earth sciences came into being, India became the first country to have such a ministry that was mandated to generate knowledge and provide services pertaining to the weather, climate, oceanic and coastal conditions, hydrology, seismology, natural hazards, marine living and non-living resources, and the Earth’s poles (Arctic, Antarctic, and the Himalayas). The ministry was created by reorganising the department of ocean development through a Presidential notification.

Chennai, Jan 08 (ANI): School students sit in the formation displaying 'IMD 150' as part of a celebration marking the 150th anniversary of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), at Everwin School in Chennai on Wednesday. (ANI Photo) (Lakshmi) PREMIUM
Chennai, Jan 08 (ANI): School students sit in the formation displaying 'IMD 150' as part of a celebration marking the 150th anniversary of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), at Everwin School in Chennai on Wednesday. (ANI Photo) (Lakshmi)

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), one of the oldest departments of the Government of India, was brought under the ministry of earth sciences in 2006. Set up in 1875 (mainly to understand the Indian monsoon) and headed by the Britishers until India’s independence, IMD celebrated its 150th year on January 14, 2025. IMD remains the foremost institution touching the everyday lives of several Indians and impacting the lives and livelihoods of lakhs of farmers on an everyday basis. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and the National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida, set up in 1962 and 1988, respectively, to augment the scientific activities and services of IMD, are under the earth sciences ministry, 2006 onwards. IMD, IITM, and NCMRWF were formerly under the department of science and technology.

After Independence, IMD was moved to civil aviation, and its cadre (including scientific posts) was established under the Union Public Services Commission (UPSC). This was because IMD was considered a service unit only, providing weather-related briefings to pilots. This was when the scientific character of IMD experienced a significant setback, the only respite being that its interaction with bodies like the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) continued. In 1985, IMD was transferred to the department of science and technology, where it continued reliance on conventional techniques and human expertise for providing weather and climate forecasts. IMD’s amalgamation into the earth sciences ministry was a landmark decision on several fronts. There was now greater focus on improving the observation network and infrastructure (setting up more and improved Doppler Weather Radars, Automatic Weather Stations, and Radiosonde, connecting data flow to central processing stations at Delhi and Pune) and adopting a physics-based numerical modelling approach for forecasts. Moreover, it was re-moulded into a scientific unit, meaning the posts were of a scientific cadre. The changes resulted in improved forecasts of weather, cyclones, and extreme weather events, recognised as amongst the best in the world.

The launch of Mission Mausam aims to make us even bigger and better in the coming two years. The country’s observation network, data resolution, information dissemination, and lead time are all aimed at becoming more useful for our people. The need now is to make our agromet services more farmer-specific and boost forecasting and mitigation capabilities for events such as hailstorms, frosting, extreme weather-based landslides and flooding. We are also setting up advanced facilities to study and test innovative ways of weather management, such as cloud seeding for artificial rain in water-deficit areas.

Weather is a chaotic system, so long-term forecasts (particularly monsoon forecasts four to six months ahead) can only be done through numerical modelling and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Studying changes due to global warming also requires generic AI techniques. IMD has a vast database, a significant asset for AI-based forecasting. The ministry’s high-performance supercomputer was upgraded to ~22 petaflops (in combined capacity) in 2024 (from ~6 petaflops), and resolution has improved from 70 km to 12 km in the last decade. However, higher computing prowess and improved resolution are only a part of the whole. The resolution must be matched with the expanding observation network. For this, the ministry/IMD has planned the installation of a dense network of Doppler Weather Radars, radiosonde, and AWS. Again, these are on land only, implying that ocean observations compatible with the desired resolution for the model to give reliable results are to be set up in the immediate future. The ministry can benefit greatly from a Quantum Computer, 50Qbit capacity of which can decode encryption in seconds, which a conventional supercomputer would take billions of years to execute. The ministry should be envisaged as an active member of the National Quantum Mission under the Prime Minister’s Science and Technology Innovation Advisory Council.

With advancements in infrastructure and computing, it is equally important to continue to enhance satellite-based observations to improve weather and climate services. There remains a need for more satellites in the lower orbits with high-end sensors like multi-channel profilers, microwave sounders, scatter meters, and ocean colour monitors for weather and climate-related observations. Therefore, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the earth sciences ministry must continue to work closely. Also, ISRO’s role could widen from that of a satellite provider to that of a partner in satellite meteorology. A working group between the ministry and ISRO on the lines of subcommittees of the National Natural Resource Management System would be beneficial. Global bodies, such as WMO, should facilitate the development of a cooperative and comprehensive framework of standard specifications, launching satellites, and data sharing. Investments in capacity building and human resource development should remain at the pole point.

PS Goel is a former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.The views expressed are personal

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