Keeping up with UP | BJP’s dilemma as party weighs pros and cons of changing leadership in state
Yogi Adityanath is recognised as national level Rajput leader and wears saffron and his Hindutva ideology on his sleeve
There are some similarities between 1999 and 2024 in the context of the ongoing political developments in India’s most politically important state, Uttar Pradesh (UP).
In the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, held after the BJP’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee failed to prove his majority in Parliament, the party’s tally of Lok Sabha seats in UP fell from 58 to 29 with many in the party accusing UP chief minister and senior BJP leader Kalyan Singh of sabotage and helping the Samajwadi Party, which won 26 seats. Vajpayee wanted Singh's removal and after being persuaded to quit by Pramod Mahajan, Singh quit the CM's post and handed over charge to the unknown Ram Prakash Gupta.
This time too, the party did not do as well as it hoped to in the Lok Sabha elections. Eyeing 75 of the 80 seats in the state, it won only 33, lower than the 37 won by the Samajwadi Party (SP). Worse still, its tally of 240 overall, meant the BJP was now dependent on allies such as the Shiv Sena, Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal (United) to cross the halfway mark in the Lok Sabha.
It was only a matter of time before cracks emerged — and sure enough, they now have.
Rumblings in the state
A month-long state-wide review and introspection, culminating in a review over the weekend has only triggered infighting and intensified speculations of change of leadership, instead of finding a tenable solution to hold the prime state.
Deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya and BJP allies Sanjay Nishad, Om Prakash Rajbhar and Anupriya Patel are believed to have indirectly targeted chief minister Yogi Adityanath, suggesting that his administration was not responsive to party workers. Maurya, conspicuously, has also skipped cabinet meetings.
Adityanath spoke about how it was perhaps overconfidence among workers that led to the party’s poor performance. Maurya said that the organisation was more important than the government. While the meeting ended inconclusively, it was clear that battle lines and boundaries of bitterness had been drawn.
Soon after, Maurya posted on X: "Aaj lage jo dand, wahi kal puruskar ban jaata hai, nishchit hoga prabal samarthan, apne satya vichar ka, karmaveer ko farq nahin padta, kabhi jeet aur haar ka (What looks like a punishment today may prove to be a blessing tomorrow, the truth will always get full support, and a soldier is not affected by defeat or victory)." He ended his tweet with, “Party workers are my pride.”
The caste equation
Maurya is from the Other Backward Class (OBC) community and one reason for the BJP’s poor performance in UP was its inability to hold on to the rainbow Hindu coalition it had built in 2014 across class and caste divisions. The SP, under Akhilesh Yadav, expanded its reach among OBCs, benefited from the consolidation of Muslim votes behind it, and also made inroads into the Dalit vote.
Understandably, the BJP wants to remedy the situation. It has been here before. In the early 1990s, Mandal emerged as an effective counter to Kamandal, and the BJP, then gaining in strength and representation on the back of the Ram temple movement, scrambled to find an OBC leader who could help it reach out to backward classes. It identified Kalyan Singh, a Lodh and long-time RSS man; he became the first BJP CM of the state in 1991.
Adityanath is recognised as a national-level Rajput leader, wears saffron and his Hindutva ideology on his sleeve, and is piloting the Kashi and Mathura projects after his contribution to the Ram Mandir movement. He did not belong to the RSS and was running his own political outfit, Hindu Yuva Vahini (HYV) until he became the chief minister. There is speculation that he may revive the HYV, if pushed, even threaten to return to his math rather than take up a post in Delhi.
And that is perhaps Delhi’s dilemma. Perhaps, it is weighing the pros and cons of replacing Adityanath at this critical juncture when elections are scheduled in October in three states — Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand. They are also looking at the upcoming bypolls for 10 assembly seats in UP.
But getting Maurya to go will not sit well with the state’s OBC groups, and will likely be highlighted gleefully by the Samajwadi Party. After all the bitterness, perhaps one may have to go: Could it be Maurya? Speculations are rife about him being accommodated by the BJP at the national level and in a prime position.
Sunita Aron is a consulting editor with the HT based in Lucknow. You can find her on X as @overto. The weekly column, Keeping up with UP tackles everything from politics to social and cultural mores in the country's most populous state. The views expressed are personal.
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