Lok Sabha polls 2019: Mumbai set to vote on April 29
If the last two polls are anything to go by, it is likely that the alliance that wins Mumbai in Lok Sabha Elections 2019 may as well win the most seats in Maharashtra.
It is said that the battle for Maharashtra has to be first won in Mumbai. The maximum city, with nearly 96 lakh registered voters divided across various regional, linguistic communities and all economic classes, will go to polls on April 29 and vote in six Members of Parliament.
If the last two polls are anything to go by, it is likely that the alliance that wins the financial capital may as well win the most seats in the state.
Mumbai has traditionally swept completely saffron or the other way around, with all six seats showing a similar voting preference. How Mumbai votes in this summer polls will be reflected in the larger Mumbai Metropolitan Region (another four Lok Sabha seats) and could have a bearing on the contest in October in as many as 60 assembly constituencies.
In 2014, the city, like the state and the country, rode the Modi wave and went completely saffron.
The question ahead of April 29 is whether the city is willing to give PM Modi another tenure or is it ready for a change. In the absence of a wave, the results could depend on a mix of factors, ranging from national issues such as economy and development to emotive issues such as nationalism or identity politics based on region, religion and caste.
INFRASTRUCTURE FIRST
If there’s one big change that the city has undergone in the past four-and-a-half years, it is physical, reflecting the hectic construction of the Metro corridors criss-crossing across six constituencies. Fast-tracking pending big ticket infrastructure projects, from Mumbai Metro to Mumbai Transharbour Link and Navi Mumbai airport, in a bid to transform the city is also the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) main poll plank in the city.
It is an issue that is likely to win the party dividends given the citizens are aware of just how one Metro corridor (the existing Versova-Ghatkopar line) can change the way they commute and their life.
“The BJP government has undertaken infrastructure projects, including Metro and for suburban railways, worth more than ₹1 lakh crore in Mumbai alone. No one has cared for the city or common man like us. This will definitely have an impact on polling day,” said Sunil Karjatkar, general secretary in charge of organisation, BJP.
This is also one area where the Congress does not have a strong counter narrative, given its own slow trajectory when in power. “We also completed several projects such as the eastern freeway, Santacruz-Chembur link road, Mumbai Urban Transformation Project 1 and 2, the first Metro line, and conceptualised the coastal road, but we were not good with promoting it,” said a senior state Congress leader.
URBAN MIDDLE CLASS, URBAN POOR
The 2014 polls, in many ways, signalled the emergence of the urban middle class, until then seen as a population that was alienated from the political process. This class in 2014 voted largely for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and it is perceived that it is still largely in favour of the BJP.
The BJP’s pitch of presidential style elections via Modi for PM has been picked by this class, where the most common argument in favour of the ruling party is the lack of an alternative for the PM. “In 2014, the new phenomenon was the urban middle class, which was so far reluctant to take part in the political process, came out and voted. The polls stirred the political aspirations of the middle class and this will reflect once again in the 2019 polls,” said Sanjeev Chandorkar, associate professor with Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS).
The BJP, for one, is convinced that middle class voters are backing them. “The middle class will vote for us in huge numbers. And for them, the plank will be only Modi for PM, nothing else,” said a state BJP minister, who did not want to be named.
The story, however, may be different in urban slums that make up for 41.3% of the city’s population and are concentrated in huge ghettos from Mankhurd to Malwani and Dharavi. This is a powerful demographic and could hold key to polls, as it evident in the sops promised by both Congress president Rahul Gandhi (larger 500 sqft rehabilitation homes) and BJP’s property tax waiver for houses upto 500 sqfeet.
But, unlike the middle class, their voting is more fragmented.
“Post delimitation, the way these slums are spread out has ensured they do not hold a dominant narrative in any constituency. Their voting is fragmented on religious, linguistic identities or certain specific local issues and leadership more than governance issues,” said professor Amita Bhide, also with TISS, who heads the M ward project of the institute that aims at public intervention in one of city’s biggest urban poor wards.
For instance, Bhide pointed out that while livelihood issues and inflation were most important concerns for this demographic, a consolidated voting on this issue was unlikely across this population.
The slum vote bank in Mumbai has traditionally been split between the Sena and the Congress, although the BJP has made inroads here. The NCP’s presence in the city is limited.
The Congress believes that the 500-sqft homes sop offered by its party president could be a game-changer in the elections, but it has not created a buzz on the ground so far.
IDENTITY POLITICS AND DEMOGRAPHICS
Beyond the class, the city votes are likely to be divided more on the basis of linguistic, religious and caste identities. How the city’s second largest community, North Indians, vote, or how Gujaratis vote will have an impact on poll results of individual seats.
For instance, in Dharavi, Dalits make up for a prominent group and they are said to be disenchanted with the ruling parties. This disenchantment may make Mumbai South Central a contest to watch for in the city. “Currently, it is advantage BJP in Mumbai. There isn’t any evident discontent against the ruling party. They have delivered on infrastructure and the Opposition is yet to come out of its defeatist attitude or raise relevant issues. But in certain demographics such as Dalits and minorities, the vote is poised to go against the BJP,” said Abhay Deshpande, political analyst.
According to him, two constituencies could see a keen contest based on demographic profiles and potential candidates, Mumbai South Central and Mumbai North West. “Will North Indians from the North West constituency vote for a Sena MP, even though they supported the BJP in 2014 and later in 2017 civic polls,” he asked.
In Mumbai South Central, the contest may be tough given the demographics and support the Congress candidate and Dalit leader, former MP Eknath Gaikwad enjoys. The BJP also admits that certain constituencies may pose a problem, but not ones that can’t be overcome. “The North Central constituency has a sizeable population of minorities and we are not counting their support. So this may be a tough contest, but we will still win it post alliance with the Sena,” said a senior BJP functionary.
JOBS AND ECONOMY
It is said nothing moves the electorate more than the issues of economy and jobs. While the issue of unemployment or lack of quality jobs has resonance across the state, it has been vocalised more in rural areas and semi urban areas.
“There is deep discontent over lack of jobs, poor raises, inflation among youth and middle class even in the city. This will be evident in the elections,” said Mumbai city chief Sanjay Nirupam.
With the BJP managing to stem the rising petrol prices, inflation is not a top-of-the-mind issue right now.
BJP-SENA ALLIANCE AND THE MNS FACTOR
The saffron alliance for the Lok Sabha also means these parties have an advantage vis-a-vis organisational machinery and network across the city. “It translates into 178 corporators and 29 legislators on ground. That’s a big advantage,” said a senior Sena leader.
To add to this, the Congress, the main opposition in the city, remains in a defeatist mode given the party has struggled to resolve internal rivalries in the city unit, failed to find an eligible candidate for Mumbai North and is likely to prop up a reluctant former MP Priya Dutt as candidate again in North Central constituency.
