Chance for hattrick of US Open titles outside Big Three

No runaway favourite as Nadal returns from injury with Djokovic and Federer not playing.

You’d have to go back almost two decades, to 2004, to find a Grand Slam where the men’s top seed wasn’t named Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray. That tag for the 2022 US Open rests with Daniil Medvedev, the reigning world No. 1 and defending champion.

Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal (ATP media)

That this rare phenomenon happens to occur at Flushing Meadows isn’t simply a coincidence. In recent times the US Open has been unlike any other Grand Slam, where the stranglehold of the Big Three—barring Murray that is—has gradually waned.

The winners of the last two editions have been persistent challengers to the exclusive club: Dominic Thiem (2020) and Medvedev (2021). It’s the only time anyone apart from Djokovic, Federer and Nadal has wrapped hands around a Grand Slam trophy since 2017.

The trio hasn’t budged an inch collectively in Australia, Paris and London. New York has been the go-to spot for that, the odd different name cropping up every few years of this Big Three era—Juan Martin del Potro (2009), Murray (2012, the first of his three Slams), Marin Cilic (2014) and Stan Wawrinka (2016). Yet, exceptions couldn’t be imprinted for two years in a row even at the US Open until Thiem and Medvedev set the ball rolling, one that appears likely to be dribbled onto this edition as well in a more-open-than-usual field.

End season blues

One of the factors the US Open has had a larger spread of male winners is that it hasn’t quite been a fiefdom of the Big Three like the Australian Open (Djokovic, 9-time champion), French Open (Nadal, 14-time champion) and Wimbledon (Federer, 8-time champion and Djokovic, 7-time champion). Federer won the US Open five times in a row from 2004 to 2008, but that was the last time any men’s singles champion defended his title at the Arthur Ashe Stadium.

The other decisive reason is the timing of the Slam. Coming at the fag end of the calendar when, as they grew older, the Big Three’s appearances and peak performance levels dropped. Federer hasn't won the US Open since 2008 and hasn't gone there since his quarter-final exit in 2019. Nadal’s last title was in 2019 beating Medvedev. The pandemic kept him out in 2020 and the foot injury the following year. Djokovic was there both years, a freak default shortening his stay in 2020 and an exhausted mind and body—along with a solid Medvedev—stopping him one step away from the Calendar Slam last year.

The case of absent names and battered bodies is around this time too, even more glaringly so. The rehabilitating Federer continues to stay away while the unvaccinated Djokovic has been compelled to. Nadal has had to deal with a “tough” abdominal muscle injury that kept him from competing in the Wimbledon semi-final and down to one competitive match in the tune-up to the US Open. The last time the 22-time Grand Slam champion’s prospects before a hard-court Slam were underplayed, he went on to win the 2022 Australian Open. Nothing, therefore, can really be off limits for the Spaniard.

But there is a host of fitter and in-form men who would do well to pounce in a men’s field with—for a change—no runaway favourite. Medvedev does stand a shoulder above the other names but after his title in Los Cabos, the Russian has been beaten by Nick Kyrgios, the reigning Wimbledon finalist, and Stefanos Tsitsipas, the Cincinnati finalist. These two could be in the mix, though neither has made it beyond the third round at the US Open.

There’s the much younger and lesser-heralded troop too, the former headlined by Carlos Alcaraz, who stunned Tsitsipas en route to making the last eight in his main draw Slam debut a year ago, and the latter by the likes of Casper Ruud and Taylor Fritz.

The fact that Borna Coric, the surprise Cincinnati champion, has also been talked about as a potential contender shows where this US Open could be heading in crowning its latest, potentially non-Big Three, male winner.

“Look what just happened (in Cincinnati), (Borna) Coric looked better than anybody to me. Physically, he looked like he was a level above what I'd seen from most of the players,” the legendary John McEnroe told Eurosport. “Why not put him in as well? He's one of the guys that could win the US Open.

"To me, it's become much more wide open, especially since Novak's not playing… Rafa is coming off an injury. Kyrgios could potentially be that guy if he is committed, but you know it's the old story… So, it's hard to say right now."