Poll suggests Donald Trump likely winner in Texas; leads Biden by 5 points
US President Donald Trump is ahead of his rival and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden by more than five points among the likely voters in the state of Texas, according to a poll conducted to understand the popularity of the two leaders.
The poll released on Monday by the Hobby School for Public Affairs at the University of Houston found that 50 per cent of the voters said they already have or will vote for President Trump while 44.7 per cent said they have or will vote for Biden.
“The poll conducted between October 13 and October 20 found 50 per cent of the voters saying they already have or will vote for Trump, while 44.7 per cent said they have or will vote for Biden,” said the poll outcome that was released after taking the opinions of over 1,000 registered voters.
Trump, a Republican is being challenged by Biden in the November 3 US presidential election.
“Record turnout in early voting clearly shows the state’s Democrats are energised, but at least at the top of the ticket, that enthusiasm appears unlikely to overcome the Republican advantage among men, Anglos and older voters,” said Renée Cross, senior director of the Hobby School.
“In fact, we found the Republican candidate leading by wider margins in statewide races farther down the ballot,” Cross added.
There are more than 257 million people in the US who are 18 or older, and nearly 240 million citizens are eligible to vote this year, according to the American daily USA Today.
More than 58.7 million Americans have voted in the 2020 presidential election so far, surpassing all early ballots cast in the 2016 polls, but an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots has given rise to the possibility that the result could be delayed as counting of votes may stretch beyond November 3.
The poll highlights that the voters in Texas who plan to vote on the Election Day would support Trump and not Biden.
“More than 40 per cent had already voted at the time of the poll. Biden held a substantial edge among those voters, leading Trump 59 per cent to 39 per cent. Almost two-thirds of those who plan to vote on Election Day said they will vote for Trump,” according to the poll.
Biden holds a slight edge among women with 49.5 to 46 per cent support while Trump is preferred among men by a notably larger margin of 54.3 to 39.5 per cent support.
While 63 per cent of the Anglos support Trump, and 87 per cent of African-American voters back Biden, the gap is narrower among Latino voters: 56 per cent support Biden, and 38 per cent back Trump.
Independents support Trump over Biden by more than 17 points.
Mark P Jones, a research associate at the Hobby School and a political science professor at Rice University, said the poll is a reminder that neither party can take the Latino vote for granted, especially in Texas.
The poll also highlighted the role the state’s independent voters will play in the election.
Younger voters, on the other hand overwhelmingly back the Democrats.
Generation Z and Millennial voters, those roughly ages 18-39, prefer Biden over Trump 54.3 to 36.5 per cent.
Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris is decidedly unpopular with Texas voters as 48 per cent of the them view her “very unfavorably,” while almost two-thirds, or 64 per cent, said they believe that, if Biden and Harris are elected, she will have more influence than the four most recent vice presidents have wielded.