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Canada polls: Trudeau’s Liberal Party unlikely to get majority
The party may garner additional seats but, as things appear, not gain enough to get a majority that was the rationale behind risking the snap polls on September 20.
With four weeks of the campaign for the 2021 Federal elections in Canada remaining, the Liberal Party leader (and caretaker Prime Minister) Justin Trudeau’s gamble for calling snap polls amid a fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic may partly pay off. Trudeau is favoured to head the next government, even if that will still be short of a majority in the House of Commons.
Trudeau was strangely absent from the campaign trail on Saturday, but the latest polls indicate the ruling Liberal Party may garner additional seats but, as things appear, not gain enough to get a majority that was the rationale behind risking the elections scheduled on September 20.
Poll trackers are not exactly in line with Trudeau’s ambition to capture a majority and not depend on support from another party to implement its agenda as his government had to do after the 2019 Federal elections, when the Liberal party fell 13 seats short of the 170 majority mark in the 338 seats House of Commons.
Of course, when he first came to power in Ottawa in October 2015, Trudeau led his party to a thumping victory with 184 seats.
That a minority verdict may be in the offing was underscored by the updated Poll Tracker from the news outlet CBC, which noted, “The Liberals continue to hold a lead over the Conservatives in national polling and would likely gain seats if an election were held today, but are slipping further away from being within reach of the 170 seats needed for a majority government.”
The ruling party has 34.2% support, against 30.1% for the principal opposition party, the Conservatives. No tracker gives the Conservatives enough seats to capture a majority or even emerge as the single-largest party.
Modelling from the election analysis outlet 338 Canada projects a similar scenario: As of Saturday, Trudeau’s party is slated to capture 156 seats, with the Conservatives getting 117. It also puts the odds of the Liberals getting a majority at just 26.4%.
The latest Federal vote intention data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute also places the Liberals comfortably ahead of their rivals, with 36% support against 30% for the Conservatives.
As it stands, Trudeau is almost certain to return as Prime Minister, but his objective of securing a majority may well be thwarted by the voters.
