Explained: What the Bangladesh elections and PM Sheikh Hasina’s victory mean for India
China has moved big into Bangladesh, but from India’s perspective, Sheikh Hasina has shown sensitivity to New Delhi’s security concerns.
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League (AL) swept Sunday's general elections, winning a fourth consecutive and fifth overall term in office.
The country's 12th general elections recorded one the lowest voter turnouts in its checkered history. The low voting percentage was on expected lines following Hasina’s refusal to accept the opposition Bangladesh National Party’s (BNP) demand for a neutral caretaker government to conduct the polls. The BNP therefore chose to boycott the elections.
For India though, the compulsions are different. Hasina has proved to be a reliable ally and it is in New Delhi’s interest that she comes back to power. The BNP, led by Hasina’s bete noir Khaleda Zia, is regarded as hostile by the Indian government, some even going so far as to dub her a proxy for Pakistan.
Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Studies Programme at the Gateway House, says,"PM Hasina’s re-election bodes well for India. The relations between the two countries have been cordial for the last decade-and-a-half, and both sides have taken each other’s sensitivities into concern.”
India is wary of too much Chinese intervention in Bangladesh, which believes in leaving its imprimatur on the countries on its periphery - and South Asia is just there. Here is a close look at the geopolitics of South Asia and the criticality of Bangladesh elections to India.
Why Bangladesh’s strategic location matters
Bangladesh is almost completely surrounded by India and shares borders with Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya, Assam, and West Bengal. In the past, particularly when the country has been ruled by the military or the BNP, separatists and insurgents from India have found safe haven. It also provided a springboard for Islamists, both domestic and foreign, for operations in India.
Why it is in India’s interest that Sheikh Hasina stays
No government in India can ignore the reality that during the rule of Sheikh Hasina between 1996- 2001 and then since 2009, New Delhi’s security establishment has received cooperation from Bangladeshi agencies, and genuine efforts have been made to curb anti-India activity in that country.
The principal anti-India activists in the country are backed by Pakistan’s ISI, which practically had a free run during the two regimes of Begum Khaleda Zia’s BNP, which had the backing of the Jamaat-e-Islami. Khaleda Zia served as the prime minister of Bangladesh from 1991 to 1996, and again from 2001 to 2006.
In 2008, Bangladesh's Harkat-ul-Jihad-at-Islami (HuJI ) carried out a series of bomb blasts in UP’s Gorakhpur, Lucknow, Faizabad, and Varanasi, in cahoots with the so-called Indian Mujahideen.
In 2007, the Border Security Force (BSF) gave their Bangladeshi counterparts a list of 112 separatist rebels from India’s North East, who were regularly using that country as a safe haven. In addition, they provided the Bangladesh government a list of 172 camps run by the separatists.
The Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen, Bangladesh (JMB) has also operated in India and was responsible for the attack in Bodh Gaya in January 2016 to coincide with the visit of the Dalai Lama.
Former Indian Ambassador Ashok Kantha told this reporter: "Sheikh Hasina and Bangladesh have always been sensitive to Indian concerns. Both countries have worked closely and have inked the boundary dispute. On June 6, 2015, both countries signed the historical 1974 Land Boundary Agreement (LBA), which would settle the 4096-kilometre-long border dispute between the two countries.”
Why security cooperation with Dhaka is vital
India heaved a sigh of relief when Hasina came back to power in 2009. Her government took an active part in dealing with insurgents in India’s North East. In 2015, they handed over Anup Chetia, the founder of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) along with two other leaders who had served prison terms in Bangladesh.
The Islamists led by HuJI, an ideological offshoot of al Qaeda, has been responsible for a series of terror strikes within Bangladesh as well. In 2000 and again in 2014, they were involved in plots to assassinate Sheikh Hasina. In 2004, HuJI chief Mufti Abdul Hannan led a terror attack on a British envoy. The diplomat escaped, but three policemen were killed.
How has Sheikh Hasina has government controlled Islamists and anti-Indian elements?
Besides the HuJI, there is the JMB, which was charged with triggering more than 450 coordinated bomb blasts across 63 of 64 districts within a 30-minute period in 2005! One of their most spectacular hits was on the Holey Artisan Bakery in 2016 which killed 22 civilians, two police officers, and five terrorists. Among those killed were nine Italian, seven Japanese, and one Indian national.
The importance of Hasina’s hard line
Sheikh Hasina’s no-nonsense approach has enforced a degree of control over the many Islamist and anti-Indian elements. The US State Department’s Country Reports on Terrorism noted that in 2022, “Bangladesh experienced few instances of terrorist violence as authorities continued to pursue militants rigorously,” particularly groups like the JMB, which had now reportedly also developed an ISIS offshoot.
Why Bangladesh’s strategic location is crucial
Bangladesh's strategic location renders it vulnerable to third countries like China and Pakistan, which are India’s traditional rivals, and even the US that can have implications. Washington is concerned about the `loss' of democracy in Bangladesh, with the principal opposition party out of the elections.
The US has backed Bangladesh’s counter-terror agenda by providing training and resources. They are concerned about the erosion of democracy in Bangladesh, something that does not particularly bother India, as long as Sheikh Hasina is in power. Pakistan has been largely neutralized and will continue to be so as long as Hasina – daughter of Bangladesh founder Sheikh Mujibur Rehman - remains in power.
The China Factor
China, unlike Pakistan, poses significant challenges. Between 2016-2022, Beijing emerged as the largest FDI provider to Bangladesh, having pumped in some $26 billion worth of investments. Chinese loans have enabled Bangladesh to undertake significant infrastructure schemes such as the bridge over the Padma River and the Karnaphuli under the river tunnel.
It is involved in the construction of a dozen highways, 21 bridges, and 27 power plants in the country and its companies plan to buy stakes in the new economic zones that Dhaka wants to establish.
China is now Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, the two-way trade estimated to be worth $25 billion. Beijing has allowed a duty-free regime for 98 per cent of Bangladeshi products like vegetables, frozen and live fish, leather, textiles, paper yard and woven fabrics, garments, and apparel items.
Even more crucial is the fact that China has since 2010, supplied more than two-thirds of Bangladesh's arms and ammunition. Its military is equipped with Chinese tanks, its navy has Chinese frigates and missile boats, and the Bangladesh Air Force flies Chinese-made fighter jets.
In 2013, Dhaka decided to buy two Chinese-made submarines for its Navy and had them construct a naval base to house them.
Points out Kanth: ``Dhaka is sensitive to India’s security concerns. It realizes that as long as New Delhi’s security is not compromised, they can go ahead and do business with China. It is important to keep this in mind.”
How Bangladesh could make economic gains with Sheikh Hasina?
Once seen as a basket case, Bangladesh is the world’s second largest garments exporter, whose economy has been on an upswing. However, since 2022, the country has been impacted by economic issues arising from inflation, fuel shortages, and a decline of its foreign exchange reserves that has forced the country to go to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Continuing protests by garment workers have taken a toll on the country’s somewhat fragile political environment. An effective opposition could have tapped into the discontent but with BNP sitting out, Sheikh Hasina was nearly certain to be re-elected. That keeps the China-Pakistan axis out of the loop for the time being.
(Ranjit Bhushan is a senior journalist)
