Israel to strike Iran's nuclear facilities this year? What intel found during final days of Joe Biden administration

An analysis prepared during the closing days of the Biden administration reportedly found that Israel is aiming to take advantage of Iran’s weakness.

During the final days of the previous Joe Biden-led administration, US intelligence agencies reportedly concluded that Israel is contemplating significant military action, particularly strikes, against Iran’s nuclear facilities this year.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (AP/File)

The analysis, prepared during the closing days of the Biden administration, flagged growing concerns about the Middle East's instability following Israel's successful strikes on Iranian military sites and the weakening of Iran's proxy forces, including Hezbollah and Hamas, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

Israel's potential strike on Iran

The timing and nature of any potential Israeli strikes on Iran will likely depend on negotiations between the US and Israel, as well as other factors, such as the stability of fragile ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon.

According to Israeli analysts cited in the report, an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites would require hitting multiple facilities, including some located in underground bunkers, and would need to be comprehensive enough to prevent Iran from quickly rebuilding.

Yakov Amidror, a former Israeli national-security adviser under Netanyahu, said that Israel would be better off securing a new agreement in which Iran agrees to dismantle its nuclear programme. "If a good agreement cannot be achieved, Israel will have to take action against Iran’s nuclear project," he said.

Israel to seek Trump's help?

The WSJ report suggested that Israel might seek the support of newly sworn in Donald Trump administration for such an operation, viewing the new US President as more likely to join an attack than former President Joe Biden.

Israel views Donald Trump as more inclined to back an attack than President Joe Biden, especially as the window for preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons seems to be narrowing, the WSJ report quoted two people familiar with the intelligence.

In addition, US military support would be crucial given the complexity and fortification of Iran’s nuclear facilities, according to the above-mentioned military experts.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has frequently suggested that there is an opportunity to take more aggressive steps against Iran, especially after the losses Iran’s military capabilities suffered in the past year.

"Iran is more exposed than ever to strikes on its nuclear facilities,” said Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz in November. “We have the opportunity to achieve our most important goal—to thwart and eliminate the existential threat to the State of Israel.”

While Israel has appeared ready to act, the risks associated with such military operations are considerable given that Iran has long threatened retaliation against Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites, but its position has weakened following Israeli attacks on its conventional military infrastructure.

Additionally, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria has deprived Iran of one of its key regional allies, further eroding its strategic capabilities.

Although Donald Trump has signaled a preference for a negotiated solution with Iran, he has not ruled out supporting Israeli military action if diplomatic efforts fail. Donald Trump last week reiterated his commitment to a "maximum pressure" policy against Iran, which could potentially pave the way for US involvement if Israel proceeds with an attack.

“Reports that the United States, working in conjunction with Israel, is going to blow Iran into smithereens, ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED,” Donald Trump wrote last week on Truth Social.

Tehran, meanwhile, has shown willingness to discuss the issue with the US, signaling that a resolution to the nuclear issue could be negotiated if the United States was open to such talks.