The Alternative for Germany has won its best-ever election result

But the hard-right could still fall short of forming a government in Saxony-Anhalt

A ROAR WENT up at the Altes Theater in Magdeburg, the capital of the east German state of Saxony-Anhalt, as the exit poll came in. The populist-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was projected to win a staggering 44% of the vote, by a distance its best-ever score, and better than polls had predicted. Party grandees hugged each other on stage. Björn Höcke, the AfD’s leader in the state of Thuringia and one of its most radical figures, led the crowd in a lusty rendition of “So ein Tag, so wunderschön wie heute” (“Such a day, as beautiful as today”). The German national anthem followed.

Alice Weide, federal chairwoman and co-chairwoman of the AfD parliamentary group in the Bundestag, smiles at the AfD's election party at the Altes Theater, in Magdeburg, Germany, Sunday, Sept. 6, 2026. (AP)

The AfD was dominant among most segments of the electorate, bar the elderly. A record-breaking turnout, projected at over 75%, fell in the party’s favour; exit polls suggested that over half of the AfD’s growth since the last election in 2021 came from mobilising non-voters. Its score is not quite enough for the single-party majority that Ulrich Siegmund, the party’s lead candidate, had sought. But Mr Siegmund may yet have alternative routes to power. Either way, it is a result that will resonate far beyond this small, largely rural state. Alice Weidel, the AfD’s co-leader and an aspirant for the chancellorship, said she expected the result to topple the federal government and lead to fresh elections. That is a stretch, but Der Spiegel, an influential weekly, called on Friedrich Merz, the chancellor, to consider his position. Even Donald Trump found time to post an election projection from a German pollster.

Mr Merz will speak on Monday. But there is no denying the depth of the defeat inflicted on his centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which leads both the federal government and the coalition in Saxony-Anhalt. Across town in Magdeburg the mood was decidedly subdued at the CDU gathering. “It’s devastating,” said one party figure. The CDU’s vote share halved to 17%, presumably in part because of tactical anti-AfD votes shifting to the Social Democrats and Greens to nudge them over the 5% threshold to enter parliament. Both, especially the Greens, outperformed expectations. There were calls from inside the CDU, including from the state party’s youth wing, for Sven Schulze, the state premier whom Mr Siegmund wishes to unseat, to resign.

Perhaps the most crucial development was the success of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a pro-Russian populist outfit that split from the hard-left Die Linke some years ago, which just made it over the 5% threshold. The BSW is the one party that has not ruled out working with the AfD, or at least tolerating it in office. The AfD was projected to win 39 of the parliament’s 83 seats; the BSW’s projected five would deliver a majority. (There is also speculation over possible defections by some CDU MPs to Mr Siegmund’s camp.)

The deeply chastened CDU now looks set to lick its wounds—and let the AfD try to form a government. Yet the BSW’s ambivalent stance shrouds the process in uncertainty. Ms Wagenknecht, the party’s leader, has called for a non-partisan state premier, but that is a non-starter. More importantly, she has said her party would not necessarily join forces with other parties to block Mr Siegmund from taking office. Claudia Wittig, the BSW’s candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, said she could envisage co-operation with the AfD on “specific projects”. That does not sound like a promising basis for what would be the AfD’s first shot in government. Mr Siegmund sounded sceptical about the prospect of relying on BSW support.

If the AfD tries and fails, or simply refuses to play along, Saxony-Anhalt will be stuck. Under state rules, there is no time limit for putting together a government or appointing a state premier; Mr Schulze could muddle along as acting premier indefinitely. Many in the CDU think their best hope is to do just that for a while, trust that voters’ mood lifts, and perhaps push for another election next year that might deliver a happier result. They will also want to avoid doing anything to harm their prospects in two further state elections, on September 20th. It is a view born of despair rather than determination. But that is a pretty fair description of the mood in Germany’s ruling party.