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‘There’s no magic bullet’: Covid-19 will kill 100,000 to 240,000 Americans, say White House experts
More than 810 people died of the coronavirus in the United States on Tuesday in another single-day high, taking the toll to 3,900 so far; with nearly 190,000 confirmed cases, an increase of more than 44,000 over Monday.
The two top US government scientists spearheading the fight against the coronavirus said Tuesday that 100,0000 to 240,000 Americans could die in the outbreak despite the social-distancing mitigation guidelines that have shut down schools, restaurants, cinema and all non-essential activities.
Anthony Fauci, a leading epidemiologist and member of the White House task force, and Deborah Birx, a physician who serves as coordinator of the task force, warned fatalities could be much higher — 1.5 to 2.2 million — if nothing was done. Social-distancing is working, it’s effective and is perhaps the best strategy yet, they added.
“There’s no magic bullet. There’s no magic vaccine or therapy. It’s just behaviors,” Birx said, addressing the daily White House briefing along with Fauci and President Donald Trump. “Each of our behaviors translating into something that changes the course of this viral pandemic. Over the next 30 days.”
Fauci added: “We gotta brace ourselves: in the next several days to a week or so, we’re going to continue to see things go up. We cannot be discouraged by that. Because the mitigation is actually working, and will work.”
The experts used charts and graphs with mathematical modeling for their presentation that was intended to explain why Trump announced Monday he was extending the social-distancing guidelines by a month to April 30, overturning his earlier plan to end them by Easter and put the country back into business.
President Donald Trump warned, “We’re going to go through a very tough two weeks … (and they will be) very, very painful two weeks”. That was much in in line with his grim projection that the death-rate will peak after two weeks around Easter.
He added: “Our strength will be tested, our endurance will be tried, but America will answer with love and courage and ironclad resolve.”
The staggeringly grim numbers are projections based on multiple models based on assumptions gleaned from experiences in other countries such as China and Italy and on early days of the outbreak in the United States, with heavy casualties from the two worst hit states, New York and New Jersey.
Fauci underlined the projections with a degree of caution saying they are as good as the assumptions that the models were based on. And indicated they could change based on new information inputs. Another experts has said the toll could be brought down to 80,000 if all states came under stay-at-home orders one week.
At least 30 of the 50 states are under stay-at-home orders or versions of it, covering an estimated 80% of Americans. The remaining states have been a cause of concern as experts have warned some of them could be taken by surprise by a sudden flare-up, such as in Louisiana.
More than 810 people died of the coronavirus in the United States on Tuesday in another single-day high, taking the toll to 3,900 so far; with nearly 190,000 confirmed cases, an increase of more than 44,000 over Monday. New York state is still the worst hit was 75,000 cases and 1,550 deaths, up by more than 580; 1,086 deaths in New York City.
