Weather forecasts may become less accurate due to govt cuts
The Trump administration's staff cuts have led to reduced weather balloon launches at multiple sites, impacting real-time data collection.
For decades, the National Weather Service (NWS) has relied on a time-honoured tradition of releasing weather balloons from over 100 sites across the United States and in the Pacific and Caribbean. These balloons, which carry instruments that measure temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind patterns, are a cornerstone of weather forecasting. The balloons are sent twice daily at 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. ET.
They rise 15 feet per second for about two hours in which they send crucial information collected through radio waves after travelling through atmospheric layers. The mission completes when these balloons pop and fall back to Earth with little parachutes.
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Trump’s staff-cutting measures lead to fewer weather balloons
Recent cuts to the NWS staff under the Trump administration have led to the suspension or reduction of weather balloon launches at least 10 sites across the continental United States. Meteorologists and experts in atmospheric science warn that these reductions could significantly degrade the quality of weather forecasts, particularly during severe weather events. With fewer balloon releases, the crucial real-time data needed to predict storms, hurricanes, and other extreme weather phenomena will be limited
According to NBC News, a meteorologist in Houston, Matt Lanza, who writes for The Eyewall blog shared, “There’s no question it will lead to errors. It’s just a matter of how bad will it be. We know these things help with forecasts, so why are we cutting them?”
The staff cuts made to the NWS are part of the downsizing efforts made by Trump across all the federal agencies. More than 600 employees were fired as part of this staff-cutting at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration which includes the National Weather Service. However, they were reinstated at least temporarily after court filings, as reported by NBC News.
The Trump administration's cuts to federal workers and budgets have had a ripple effect across science agencies, targeting not only essential staff but also diversity and equity programs. Over the past month, the National Weather Service (NWS) has gradually announced reductions in weather balloon launches.
Initially, the NWS suspended releases in Kotzebue, Alaska, followed by cancellations in Albany, New York, and Gray, Maine. More recently, Omaha, Nebraska, and Rapid City, South Dakota, were added to the growing list of affected sites. Additionally, some locations in Colorado, Michigan, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming now only conduct launches once per day.
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Impact of staff cutting on storm and hurricane warnings in the US
Many meteorologists shared their concern about reduced balloon launches as they have been imposed in areas of the US where the data is especially necessary. The Storms in the United States are generally tracked from West to East and the balloons give an update about what to expect in the hours and days after they fly.
The information provided by the weather balloons is of the finest resolution in nature and not something which can be easily replicated by satellite or other equipment. Thus, without them, it will be guesswork for the scientists, for example, guessing about the type of precipitation.
The director of the State Weather Risk Communication Center at the University at Albany in New York, Nick Bassil shared with the news outlet, “Here in New York, we often have very messy weather systems where they start as snow and turn into sleet and then freezing rain and rain. We might have just one little thin layer that bumps you up above freezing, then suddenly your snowstorm turned into a rainstorm or freezing rainstorm.”
Weather balloons are critical for accurate forecasting, with NASA research highlighting that their data has the second-largest impact on forecast quality, after satellites. Meteorologists often wait for balloon launches to gather key atmospheric data before running weather models, which generate crucial information like temperature and wind speed. Bassil added, “That’s when you have the most data that you can give the model. Data that are collected in real-time from these goes pretty much straight into weather models.”
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Weather ballon reduction is not new for the US
Vagasky, a former employee of Vaisala, the company that supplies weather balloons to the NWS, explained that while it’s not unusual for the service to temporarily halt balloon launches at certain sites, the recent reductions are particularly concerning.
In the past, site closures like the one in Chatham, Massachusetts, occurred due to coastal erosion, and helium shortages have led to temporary halts in cities such as Denver and Tallahassee. Though weather balloons can be filled with either helium or hydrogen, the latter is avoided in densely populated areas due to its flammability.
Bagasky revealed that between the previous stoppages and the recent cuts, “we’ve gone from 200 balloons in the weather service network each day down about 15% in the last few years.” He added that this would leave the forecast models without any key data. Citing NASA data he shared that forecasts today would be 15% worse without the weather balloons. Bassil noted that people might not notice the difference on a daily basis who use the weather apps phones but there will be additional surprises.
In response to the National Weather Service's recent cutbacks, some private companies are stepping in to help bridge the gaps. WindBorne, a startup developing low-cost, long-range balloons for monitoring remote areas, has offered to share its data from Alaska after balloon launches were halted in Kotzebue. John Dean, WindBorne's CEO, expressed concern over the cuts to weather balloon launches and announced that his company is working with NOAA to provide additional data for six months at no cost through an existing contract.
