E-Paper
Will Mortgage rates fall again? What the Middle East conflict means for borrowers
Mortgage rates have risen, influenced by geopolitical conflict and inflation. Predictions suggest rates will remain around 6.0% to 6.1% throughout the year.
Mortgage rates have begun rising again in March after briefly dipping below the key 6% threshold, with economists linking the change partly to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have rattled global markets and pushed energy prices higher.
Recent data show the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovering around 6% to 6.17%, while the 15-year mortgage rate is roughly between 5.3% and 5.41%, according to mortgage data compiled by the Mortgage Research Center.
Read more: How War in Iran Is Colliding With Trump’s Economic Priorities
Why are mortgage rates rising in March?
According to Coinpaper, three factors will determine mortgage rates in 2026: the timing of the rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, oil prices, and the Iranian conflict.
The bond market has seen significant volatility in recent weeks as oil prices have risen as a result of the Middle East conflict. This raises inflationary concerns and drives bond yields higher, according to Freddie Mac.
Mortgage rates have risen since yesterday and are now higher than they were seven days ago. Rates are still lower than they were in early 2025, when the typical 30-year fixed-rate mortgage exceeded 7%.
However, mortgage rates remain relatively high due to concerns about persistent inflation, which has prevented the Federal Reserve from lowering its benchmark rate until late 2025.
Mortgage rates fluctuate frequently, so compare offers and evaluate the personal and market aspects that affect your stated mortgage rate.
Read more: Are mortgage rates low enough to refinance in 2026? Key factors to consider
When could mortgage rates fall?
Mortgage rates fluctuate in tandem with the bond market. On February 27, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4%, reaching its lowest level in four months.
Yet mortgage rates are still a full percentage point lower than they were in mid-January 2025. While decreasing mortgage rates can increase demand, a lack of housing availability remains an issue.
Forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association suggest rates could hover around 6.0% to 6.1% for much of the year, depending on inflation and Federal Reserve policy decisions.
According to the Wall Street Journal, following three straight rate cuts in the second half of 2025, the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged at its first meeting of 2026.
The committee simply stated that it would continue to evaluate economic risks and take appropriate action in support of its dual mandate of attaining maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate, hinting at how it could modify rates at subsequent sessions.
For prospective buyers, Yahoo Finance recommend focusing on long-term affordability rather than waiting for perfect timing. While rates may fluctuate in the coming months, they remain significantly lower than the 7% highs seen in 2025, which had severely dampened housing demand.
