E-Paper
Sensex @ 94,000 in a little over a year? HSBC certainly believes it's possible
HSBC has upgraded India’s stock market to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’ earlier as “Indian equities now look attractive on a regional basis”.
The S&P BSE Sensex can rise to as high as 94,000 points by the end of next year, as US tariffs will have little impact on profits of most listed companies.
That’s according to HSBC Global Investment Research, which has upgraded “quiet corner” India to an overweight rating from neutral earlier. While earnings growth is expected to moderate a little further, valuations are no longer a concern. The government policy is becoming a positive factor for equities, and foreign funds are lightly positioned.
“We think Indian equities now look attractive on a regional basis and upgrade the market to overweight (from neutral),” Herald Van Der Linde, head of equity research (Asia Pacific) at HSBC Holdings Plc, said in a report on Wednesday (24 September 2025). “As in China, US tariffs will have little impact on the profits of most listed companies.”
US Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ policy by way of pricier H1-B visas and steeper tariffs on India has battered some of India’s biggest companies that are global in their outlook. That includes a Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. to Reliance Industries Ltd. Foreign investors have pulled out $15 billion from Indian stocks since the beginning of 2025 when Trump first came to the White House for a second term. A key reason for the underperformance was also a slowdown in earnings while valuations remained elevated.
But, things change.
The GST reforms as well as monetary policy easing coupled with moderate inflation can boost consumption and, as a consequence, corporate earnings, HSBC said in its note. Additionally, most listed equities are domestic in nature—less than 4% of sales of all BSE 500 firms come from exports to the US.
“Valuations have come off quite a bit. Earnings downgrades remain a risk but most of that is now well understood by the market,” HSBC said in its note. “The foreign positioning is light, and tariffs are an overhang but won’t dent earnings materially.”
Still, there are no signs of recovery in growth just yet.
“While GST can help boost consumption in the near term, for a more sustainable pick-up, wages and private will have to improve,” HSBC said.
