Tata Capital GMP points to cautious optimism even as India's biggest IPO of 2025 opens

The Tata Capital GMP is currently seen at ₹24-36/share as against ₹735-1,125/share before the IPO price band was announced a week ago.

Investors have turned cautious on demand for unlisted shares of Tata Capital Ltd. in the unregulated market, even as India’s biggest IPO of 2025 opens for subscription today.

The Tata Capital IPO is the first from the House of Tata since Tata Technologies Ltd.'s nearly two years ago. (Reuters)

The Tata Capital GMP is currently seen at ₹24-36/share as against ₹735-1,125/share before the IPO price band was announced a week ago, according to InvestorGain data. By pricing the IPO at ₹310-326 apiece, the company has effectively reset expectations on valuation metrics relative to peers, especially given Tata Capital’s operating performance.

Such a “discount” leaves the headroom for a listing-day pop, analysts say, but also raises the bar for performance of the stock after listing.

To be sure, the grey market premium is a signal, not a guarantee. It reflects what traders are willing to pay for an IPO-bound stock in the unofficial market—it doesn’t guarantee listing-day gains. The GMP can swing dramatically as it’s detached from fundamentals of a stock.

Tata Capital IPO Outlook

Here’s what investors should watch out for Tata Capital IPO, which opens today:

1. Subscription momentum: The extent of oversubscription, particularly in the QIB and retail segments, will be a key signal of market interest.
2. Allotment trends: Given the size of this IPO, most non-institutional investors are likely to miss the bus. How well demand is allocated could influence sentiment.
3. Listing price vs GMP: The extent to which the GMP translates into actual listing gains will be closely watched as a barometer for overall IPO health.
4. Post-listing performance: Beyond the listing pop (if any), sustaining growth, earnings, and managing investor expectations will matter more in the medium term.

The Tata Capital IPO, the first from the House of Tata since Tata Technologies Ltd.’s nearly two years ago, is offering 47.58 crore shares in a price band of ₹310-326 apiece to raise as much as ₹15,512 crore at a valuation of ₹1.4 lakh crore. The lot size is 46 shares, which sets the minimum application price at ₹14,996.

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