E-Paper
2 weeks of relaxations crucial: BMC
MUMBAI
MUMBAI
With restrictions on shops and travel in the city and Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) eased on Friday, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) is expecting a surge in Covid-19 cases, especially if citizens don’t follow social distancing norms and other guidelines. Civic officials said the next two weeks would be crucial and they are bracing for all scenarios.
On Friday, Mumbai saw 1,149 cases and 50 deaths, taking the count to 46,080 and toll to 1,519. Of the 46,080 cases, 25,768 are active cases. According to BMC, the recovery rate of the city as of Friday is 41%, death rate 3.3% and doubling rate is 20 days, from 12 days on May 15.
Starting Friday, BMC allowed shops, markets to remain open on alternate days between 9am and 5pm daily, except Sundays. Owing to this, several parts of the city saw crowding on the streets, as the lockdown was relaxed after almost 80 days.
While civic officials don’t rule out a spike, they haven’t worked out any estimate. Daksha Shah, deputy executive health officer of BMC, said, “We do not have fresh projections for the upcoming period, but in the next 10 days, we will know the trend. Our main focus is to control the cases in the slums, where the chances of spike are more. Overall, if we do not observe social distancing and follow all norms, there can be a surge in cases. We have been clear that those above 50 years of age or having other ailments should stay home and avoid coming out. However, the picture will be clear in the coming days.”
BMC had in April anticipated that by the end of May Mumbai might have around 75,000 cases, however, it later revised the projection to 45,000 cases by the end of May. By May 31, Mumbai had less than 40,000 cases, which the BMC claimed was a result of its rigorous contact-tracing and focused testing. BMC officials said their efforts ensured the positivity rate went up to 20% as of Thursday, from 3% in the first week of April.
Suresh Kakani, additional municipal commissioner, BMC, said they don’t have any projection like earlier, adding they will have to wait for the trend to emerge.
In terms of preparation, the civic body plans to have close to 1 lakh beds identified, from the current 80,000+, by augmenting the capacity at Bandra-Kurla Complex, NESCO etc. Currently, the active beds are over 16,000 in Mumbai, followed by over 47,000 beds in Covid-Care Centres where high-risk contacts are quarantined.
Ashwini Bhide, additional municipal commissioner of BMC, tweeted, “Our hospital bed capacity for Covid patients has increased from 3,500 beds to 9,000 beds in 45 days. Additional 8500+ beds are being available through Jumbo facilities. A total of 2,500 beds are ready and 900 more ICUs and ventilators are getting added.”
Meanwhile, Madhav Sathe, microbiologist and former professor at Nair Hospital, said, “The exact trend after the relaxations may be known only after at least 10 to 15 days, but, overall, there is a slight chance of a spike. At the same time, I am optimistic, considering many are developing antibodies to fight the virus. The actual spike can only come when the lockdown is completely lifted and local trains start, but by that time a huge population of the city might have developed anti-bodies. Currently, it is said that around 18-20% of the population have developed anti-bodies. The complete lockdown will be lifted by government only after knowing the results of the current relaxations. If the spike, if any, can be handled, there might be further relaxations, and if not the same will prevail for a longer period.”
