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Guest Column | World hopes Trump will end wars; but Trump is not a magician
In 2025, our best hopes are to avoid a world war end the infernos in Ukraine and Gaza, tame inflation and create jobs; these are humble expectations
Donald Trump will be crowned king of America and the uncrowned king of the world, in 2025. All eyes and ears will be on him. He loves astonishing everyone. However, America and the world, will be in a volatile churn.
The biggest challenge before Trump will be to end the Ukraine and Gaza wars. There is too much casual talk about World War 3, without realising its perils. Never before, post-World War 2, have we been so close to another global conflagration. In 1962, during the Cuban crisis, there were two nuclear powers, America and Russia. Today, there are myriad players like China, North Korea, India, Pakistan and possibly Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Ending wars
Nukes are not marbles to play with. A nuclear war could pulverise this planet. Trump must play peacemaker. He may kiss, hug or scold Putin and Zelensky. But, he must make them holster their guns, to win global credibility.
Yet, hopes should be pragmatic. Trump has to manage the quartet of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. Perhaps Dale Carnegie’s axiom may work, “Win friends and influence people.”
Wars will devour moneys. America will spend $ 895 billion on defence. NATO will spend $ 1.47 trillion on armaments. Russia has allocated $ 125 billion on defence. Sadly, wars boost business. Companies manufacturing armaments grew between 18% to 49% in Russia, Japan, Turkey and Israel. The world has ample money to fight. What it lacks is the leadership to stop the fights.
France, Great Britain and Germany will wobble with unstable governments, weak growth and immigration. The Middle East will balance adroitly between American security and Chinese infrastructure investments. Sudan has 10 million displaced citizens. A brutal famine awaits. Syria will be unstable.
Modi needs a vibrant agenda after his Parliamentary losses. Pakistan will struggle. Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand will prosper, away from global conflicts. Bangladesh will fester.
Gargantuan task: Inflation
Taming inflation will be the gargantuan task for global leaders. Prices of flour, rice, oil and sugar, have spiralled 7% to 15% in grocery shops in Asia and Africa. The poor eat less. If inflation is tamed, interest rates may fall. Then consumers may spend in restaurants and buy cars.
Wars will strangle global GDP growth to about three%. America’s could grow by about 2.5%, Europe will struggle with about 1.5%. Britain will crawl at 1.2%. Many western economies are mired in a 2% to 3% growth-trap. They should innovate.
America will tighten its borders to choke immigration. Trump may fly some immigrants back home. However, protectionist policies may backfire due to resultant higher local labour costs. Then, American products will become uncompetitive.
Trump’s planned tariff-wars, to sideline China may flounder. China is the world’s factory. It invests in technologies, ports and railways in Middle East and Africa.
Developing nations should create more jobs. They suffer 10% -15% unemployment. Hence, the desperate attempts to migrate. A happy man does not leave home. India will shine with 6%.
Oil prices will hover at $ 75 per barrel. Prices may rise if the wars end. Gold prices will stabilise around $ 2,900 per ounce if political sanity prevails. Stock markets will be volatile. Electric vehicles (EVs) will get traction, but high prices may depress demand.
Corporations will debate how to harness artificial intelligence (AI). Digitisation will gallop. It will also reduce jobs and kill customer service. If you have a complaint about your refrigerator or bank, you press buttons, hear recorded messages. But no salesperson talks.
Wind and solar energy will contribute to around 17% of electricity consumed. Deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest, is lowering production of maize and soya. Astronauts may talk on 4G phones, on the next mission to the moon. Drones will carry waste down, from Mount Everest. Marvellous!
Expect to pay more for OTT streaming or accept commercial breaks. Tom Cruise will enthral in a new Mission Impossible sequel. Scientists may discover a one-jab Corona viruse vaccine and even a cancer vaccine.
In 2025, our best hopes are to avoid a world war end the infernos in Ukraine and Gaza, tame inflation and create jobs. These are humble expectations. Hunger, poverty and inequalities continue; we can tackle them, only if we remove the Damocles’ sword of a world war.
My soulmate Patricia says we will not celebrate New Year. She is commiserating with the families of over one million soldiers and civilians perished in the Ukraine and Gaza wars. “Hopefully, we will celebrate the cease-fires in 2025,” says Patricia. Good girl. That’s why I adore her.
rkaneja@anejamanagement.com
(The author was the managing director of Unilever Tanzania.)
