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Haryana Lok Sabha poll outcome: BJP, Congress on equal footing before assembly polls
As per the preliminary election statistics, the BJP led in 44 assembly segments while the INDIA bloc took the lead in 46 assembly segments across 10 parliamentary constituencies
A neck-and-neck race between the ruling BJP and its principal rival, the Congress, in terms of leads in the 90 assembly constituencies spread across 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana seems to have set the stage for an exciting contest for the upcoming assembly elections. The two parties wrested five Lok Sabha seats each in Haryana on Tuesday. Assembly elections in the state are likely to be held in October this year, as the five-year term of the Haryana assembly will end on November 3.
As per the preliminary election statistics, the BJP led in 44 assembly segments while the INDIA bloc took the lead in 46 assembly segments across 10 parliamentary constituencies. For the sake of clarity, the Congress took the lead in 42 assembly segments across nine seats it contested and its INDIA bloc partner, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led in four assembly segments of the Kurukshetra parliamentary constituency, the lone seat it contested as a part of the seat-sharing arrangement.
The Congress led in all 18 assembly segments of Rohtak and Sirsa parliamentary constituencies from where Deepender Hooda and Kumari Selja won by huge margins of 3.45 lakh votes and 2.68 lakh votes, respectively.
The big win for the BJP was from the Karnal parliamentary constituency where the party led in all nine assembly segments and former chief minister, Manohar Lal Khattar won by a thumping margin of 2.32 lakh votes.
BJP performed well in urban centres, Ahirwal belt
The BJP, as per the statistics, led in more than 20 urban and semi-urban assembly segments, reaffirming its dominance in urban centres of the state. Some of its biggest leads came from Karnal, Panipat (urban), Sonepat, Hisar, Faridabad, Gurugram and Badshahpur segments.
Expectedly, the BJP seems to have done extremely well by taking leads in 10 out of 11 assembly segments of the Ahirwal region of southern Haryana spread across Bhiwani-Mahendergarh, Gurgaon and Rohtak Lok Sabha seats. The BJP trailed in Kosli, the lone Ahir-dominated assembly segment in Rohtak Lok Sabha seat, by a wafer-thin margin of two votes.
Congress puts up impressive show in rural areas
Data shows that the Opposition, Congress, took leads mostly in assembly segments dominated by rural and semi-rural populations. The Congress leads in rural segments also indicate that there was a consolidation of the peasantry, including the Jat community for the grand old party. The decimation of Dushyant Chautala’s JJP and its parent party, the INLD in this election also indicates this consolidation as both the parties had the peasantry as their core vote bank.
For instance, the Congress candidate from the Bhiwani-Mahendergarh Lok Sabha seat, Rao Dan Singh, an Ahir, took leads in Jat-dominated segments of Loharu, Badhra and Dadri but ended up losing because of low support from voters in Ahir-dominated segments. Similarly, Congress candidate from Sonepat Satpal Brahmachari, a Brahman, took leads in Jat-dominated Kharkhauda, Gohana, Baroda and Julana segments to script a win. Congress candidate from Rohtak Deepender Hooda also took massive leads in rural heartland segments of Jat-dominated Meham, Garhi Sampla Kiloi, Beri and Badli segments.
‘Congress is resurgent but can’t rule out BJP’
Professor Ashutosh Kumar, of Panjab University, Chandigarh, says that it’s going to be a bipolar contest during the assembly elections in Haryana between the BJP and the Congress with JJP and INLD being fringe players.
Kumar said since local issues and not the Modi factor would dominate assembly polls, one can discount a certain percentage of votes from the BJP’s kitty.
“The BJP does not have a face to match Bhupinder Singh Hooda. They have a leadership problem. By removing Manohar Lal Khattar as the chief minister, they have created a space. Can Nayab Saini fill that void? The BJP, however, would try to consolidate the non-Jat voters in the assembly polls. I expect some swift developments in this regard in the coming weeks,’’ he added.
Speaking in terms of assembly segment leads, Kumar said Congress is now resurgent but one cannot rule out the BJP. “BJP’s advantage is the support of its central government. You cannot rule out the BJP. The party is well-entrenched. The Congress has the leadership advantage, but it’s marred by factionalised politics. BJP’s central leadership is much more commanding and ensures discipline,’’ he concluded.
For the record, the BJP had led in 79 assembly segments in 2019 Lok Sabha polls but could win only 40 assembly seats in assembly elections held a few months later, primarily due to anti-incumbency.
