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It’s advantage Haneefa Jan in Ladakh as BJP, Congress stare at split in core voter base
Independent candidate hopes of consolidating Shia votes; BJP, Cong candidates, both having clout among the Buddhist voter base, fear split
As the strategically important Ladakh braces for a triangular contest, independent candidate Haji Haneefa Jan, who comes from the community of Shia Muslims, has emerged as the darkhorse giving the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidates, both from Buddhist community, a run for their money.
Leh is a Buddhists-majority district, while Kargil has a higher Shia Muslim population. The constituency with 1.84 lakh electorates will go to polls on May 20.
Haji Haneefa Jan is the lone candidate contesting from Shia-dominated Kargil district and therefore, is banking on the consolidation of the vores in the region. BJP’s Tashi Gyalson and Congress’ Tsering Namgyal hail from Leh. The two other independent Shia Muslim candidates, who had filed their nomination from Kargil, Kacho Mohammed Feroz and Sajjad Kargili, have already withdrawn their names, further bolstering the polls prospects of Haneefa Jan.
Of the 1,84,268 voters in Ladakh, the number of Shia and Buddhist voters is almost equal.
Notably, National Conference’s entire Kargil unit had resigned en-masse after it gave the seat to INDIA bloc partner, the Congress, as part of seat-sharing arrangement. They have since backed Haji Haneefa Jan as the consensus candidate.
The leaders had alleged that party president Farooq Abdullah had been pressurising the Kargil unit to support Namgyal, who is contesting on the Congress ticket.
Qamar Ali Akhoon, the former additional general secretary of National Conference in Ladakh, claimed that all their voters from Kargil district were united.
The Islamia School, Imam Khomeini Memorial Trust and other religious organisations of Kargil have also extended support to Haneefa Jan, who also enjoys the confidence of the Kargil Democratic Alliance.
Ladakh Buddhist Association president Chering Dorje Lakrook, also conceded that Haji Haneefa Jan had a strong chance of winning from the seat.
When asked about possibilities of persuading any of the two candidates of Congress and the BJP to back out to prevent division of votes, he said, “They are from two national parties (Congress and BJP) and hence, either of the candidates cannot take any decision on their own (to step down). Further, it is already late now for any of the two to step down.”
“Given the triangular contest, it appears that the Kargil candidate will win because the division of votes looks imminent in Leh but not in Kargil. Haneefa Jan’s chances to win are 90 percent unless something unusual happens,” he added.
The vast and sparsely populated Ladakh Lok Sabha constituency spans an area of 173.266 sq kms. The election authorities have set up 298 polling stations in Leh district and 279 in Kargil district.
