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NC-Congress alliance feeling the heat in ‘friendly contests’
The BJP and PDP and among the players who could benefit from the fragmentation of NC, Congress votes
The National Conference-Congress coalition is staring at an uphill battle in at least four of the six seats where it has decided to have “friendly contests” with each other, given that their shared base is likely to result in a division of votes.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and People Democratic party (PDP) and among the players who could benefit from the fragmentation.
The NC-Congress alliance’s seat-sharing arrangement for the assembly elections is set to see the regional party contest 50 seats, leaving 32 for its partner and one each for smaller allies, the CPI (M) and the Panthers Party.
The two main parties have fielded separate candidates in “friendly contests” on six seats – four in the Jammu division (Banihal, Doda, Bhaderwah and Nagrota) and two in the Kashmir valley (Sopore and Baramulla).
“Chances are that both the Congress and the NC will lose all the friendly seats in the Jammu division. Owing to division of votes, the PDP’s Imtiyaz Shan may sail through in Banihal while the BJP will have an edge in rest of the seats,” said Mohammad Yousuf, a political analyst who is closely following the campaigns of all parties in Jammu.
While the Congress has fielded two-time MLA and the party’s former local unit chief Vikar Rasool Wani from Banihal, the NC has given its mandate to Sajad Shaheen. The withdrawal of Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) candidate from Banihal has also strengthened the position of the two parties’ main riva, the PDP. Some observers, however, believe that Wani still has an upper hand despite the NC-Congress bickering in the seat
“In Doda and Bhaderwah, the NC and Congress candidates will divide the votes of Muslim demographic, which has a thin majority in the two districts and help the BJP candidates Gajay Singh and Dileep Singh Parihaar, respectively,” Yousuf said.
The Congress had fielded Sheikh Reyaz Ahmad from Doda, while former minister of state Khalid Najeeb Suharwardy is holding the fort for the NC. In Bhaderwah, Congress’ Nadeem Sharif is in a friendly contest with NC’s Mehboob Iqbal. The two seats had elected BJP MLAs in the last elections.
NC leader Devender Singh Rana, meanwhile, had clinched the Nagrota seat and was among the only party candidates to win from the Jammu division. Rana, the brother of BJP leader and Union minister Jitendra Singh, however, jumped ship to the BJP in 2021 and is the party candidate this time around.
“Since joining the BJP, Rana has strengthened his position. NC’s Joginder Singh and Congress’ Balbir Singh will cut each other and benefit Rana further,” said Rajeev Verma, a resident of Nagrota.
Another resident of Jammu region said the BJP was desperately trying to maintain its dominance over the region, adding, “All big leaders of the BJP are converging in the region every day. They have been upbeat over the reservation for the tribals. Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a rally in Doda on September 14 in the first phase.”
In Kashmir, the NC-Congress coalition had earlier decided for a friendly contest only in Sopore, but later decided to fight separately from Baramulla. A “tactical move”, the decision was taken to avoid Congress votes going to any other opponent. The party’s candidate, Haji Rashid, had been elected from Sopore in 2014 amid the boycott in some pockets.
Analysts say polling percentage could cross the 50% mark this time, giving an edge to the NC. “In Sopore, it’s a contest between the NC and the Congress. In both the situations, the coalition partners will be winners. Though in Lok Sabha polls, Engineer Rashid took a lead from Sopore, his party’s candidate doesn’t look strong,” Muneeb Ahmad, a resident of Sopore, said.
Baramulla saw the Congress fielding BDC chairperson Mir Iqbal, a promising young politician, at the last minute. His presence is being viewed as a tactical support to the NC. “The Congress has a vote bank in Baramulla and there were apprehensions that they might vote for other candidates which could damage the chances of former legislator Javeed Baig (NC’s pick). By feuding, the Congress wants both to check its strength and help the coalition candidate,” a senior Congress leader said.
The fate of Banihal, Doda and Bhaderwah was already sealed in the first phase of the assembly elections on September 18, which witnessed 61% voting. Nagrota, Sopore and Baramulla, meanwhile, will go to polls in the third and final phase of polling on October 1.
