With Mission 50+, BJP hopes to hold on to Jammu, foray into Kashmir
Of the 90 assembly segments in J&K, BJP is contesting 67, though the party’s focus is on 43 seats of Jammu region, it aims to win seven segments in Kashmir as well.
With its vote share shrinking by half in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as compared to the 2019 general election, the stakes are high for the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir as the assembly elections get underway after a decade in the erstwhile state that was stripped of its special status and bifurcated five years ago.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when Ladakh was part of Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP vote share stood at 46.7%. Of the six constituencies the party contested, it won Jammu, Udhampur and Ladakh. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won Jammu and Udhampur for the third time since 2014, but its voteshare shrunk to 24.36%. The party also lost Ladakh, which was separated from Jammu and Kashmir and declared a Union Territory after the revocation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019.
“The stakes are high for the BJP because till date the revocation of Article 370 is considered a unilateral decision taken by the Centre without the consent of the state. At the same time, there is no denying that there has been a drastic improvement in the security scenario across the Kashmir Valley that has brought much-needed peace and development,” says a political analyst.
Opposition parties in Jammu and Kashmir, particularly the National Conference, Peoples Democratic Party and Congress, have made the abrogation of Article 370 a rallying point.
Foothold in Kashmir
Though the BJP’s focus is on 43 seats of Jammu region, where it has been trying to woo all sections, including Gujjars, Bakerwals, Paharis, OBCs, Jats, Valmikis and Gurkhas, the party wants to win seven seats in Kashmir.
In the first local elections held in 2020 after the abrogation of Article 370, three BJP candidates won in Srinagar, Pulwama, and Kupwara districts.
This time round, the BJP is contesting 24 of the 47 seats in Kashmir.
Of the 90 assembly segments in Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP is contesting 67. The party is contesting all 43 seats of Jammu region, its traditional stronghold.
In the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP fielded 30 candidates in Kashmir but couldn’t win a single seat. In Jammu region, it had won a record 25 of the 33 seats.
Consequently, the saffron party forged an alliance with the PDP, giving the coalition 53 seats in the then 87-member assembly.
Banking on star power
J&K BJP chief Ravinder Raina is upbeat. “We are set for Mission 50 Plus. We are looking forward to a record victory in the assembly elections. In some segments, we may have an alliance with independent candidates.”
He said winning the Jammu and Udhampur Lok Sabha seats in 2019 and 2024 were because of “10 years of peace, prosperity and development in J&K” under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership.
As part of its strategy to propel the prospects of its candidates, the BJP is relying on star campaigners, including PM Modi, home minister Amit Shah, defence minister Rajnath Singh, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath besides Union ministers Dr Jitendra Singh and G Kishen Reddy.
All options open
“We are going full steam ahead by highlighting peace and infrastructure development, impetus to tourism and job avenues created in the last decade in Jammu and Kashmir. We are keeping all options open and aiming for 46 of the 90 seats,” said another senior party leader.
While the BJP has been projecting the National Conference, Congress and PDP as parties opposed to the reservation of marginalised sections, such as Gujjars, Bakerwals, Paharis, Jats, it has kept the post-poll alliance open with “all others”.
It indicates that if the BJP falls short of the required number of 46, it will forge a post-poll alliance with parties, such as the Apni Party, DPAP, Peoples’ Conference and Independents.
At the same time, political analysts don’t rule out the possibility of an alliance between the BJP and the National Conference.
The BJP has also brought back Ram Madhav to Jammu and Kashmir to remove roadblocks and pave the way for government formation after October 8. He was believed to have forged the alliance between the BJP and the PDP -- two parties that were poles apart ideologically -- in 2015.
Rattled by dissent
However, the internal rumblings and revolt within the BJP over distribution of party tickets may cast a shadow on its prospects.
Two key leaders from Udhampur district, Pawan Khajuria, the J&K BJP vice-president, and Mool Raj, the party’s District Development Council member from Ramnagar, have hinted at contesting as independents after they were denied the tickets from Udhampur East and Ramnagar, respectively.
Old loyalist Chander Mohan Sharma, his son and BJYM district president Kanav Sharma, Samba district president Kashmira Singh and Ramban district vice-president Suraj Singh Parihar have already resigned from the BJP to protest the decision to field “parachute and undeserving candidates”.
On Vaishno Devi assembly seat, the party had to face the anger of Rohit Dubey’s supporters after his name was replaced by former MLA Baldev Raj Sharma.
Apart from this, local issues, such as smart electricity meters, the anti-encroachment drive, job scams, poor amenities, and 64,000 daily wagers awaiting regularisation, may impact the BJP’s prospects.
Following public outrage, the anti-encroachment drive was stopped but it may take a toll as the state goes to the polls in three phases on September 18, 25 and October 1.
The results will be out on October 8.