2 spells of rain likely in Delhi this week, may lift mercury, says Met

Delhi’s minimum and maximum temperatures are likely to rise, with cold wave conditions forecast to abate over the city from January 19 onwards

Two back-to-back western disturbances could trigger two separate spells of rain in the national capital later this week, India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts show. This rain, officials said, will likely raise the minimum and maximum temperatures in the city.

Near RML Hospital in New Delhi on Monday. Cold northwesterly winds are expected to return with temperatures expected to dip once again from January 26 or 27. (Sanjeev Verma/HT Photo)

According to the IMD, the first western disturbance will impact the western Himalayan region from the night of January 18 and will remain in place till January 20. During this spell, Delhi has a chance of drizzle and very light rain on January 19.

The second, stronger western disturbance will be start impacting the western Himalayan region from January 20 onwards and the northern plains from the night of January 22, with chances of rain over Delhi-NCR and other parts of northwest India likely between January 22 and 24.

“For Delhi, during these two spells, rain is most likely on January 19… In the second spell, the impact will be more and rain may occur between January 22, 23 and 24 as well,” said RK Jenamani, scientist at IMD.

Mahesh Palawat, vice-president at private forecaster Skymet, said the second western disturbance will also lead to an induced cyclonic circulation, which is likely to bring a confluence of winds from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal to Delhi-NCR. “This will mean that there is plenty of moisture over Delhi-NCR between January 23 and 25, during which time we can see the first good spell of winter rain,” he said.

During a western disturbance, the region normally sees moisture-laden easterly to southeasterly winds, which are warmer than northwesterly winds. The region also sees cloudy skies, which lead to a higher than normal minimum temperature.

During this period, Delhi’s minimum and maximum temperatures are likely to rise, with cold wave conditions forecast to abate over the city from January 19 onwards. However, Delhi could end the month with another cold spell, though the intensity will comparatively be lower, officials said.

Palawat said as with all western disturbances, the withdrawal is generally followed by the return of cold northwesterly winds, with temperatures expected to dip once again from January 26 or 27. “The month will once again end cold, but will not be as cold as this recent spell of January 16 to 18,” he said.

As per Delhi’s long period average, the city receives 19.7mm of rainfall in January. Last January, Delhi had recorded 88.2mm of rainfall, making it the wettest January in 121 years. Delhi had logged ‘trace’ rainfall on January 12 and 13. Before that, Delhi had recorded a 91-day dry spell, with the city last receiving rain on October 12, 2022.