AAP banks on positive Lok Sabha showing for political relevance

Political analysts said pointed to two senior-most party members, Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia, currently lodged in jail, ahead of the Delhi assembly elections later this year

New Delhi

Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal on his way back to Tihar jail after his bail ended on June 2. (Vipin Kumar/HT Photo)

The performance of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the Lok Sabha elections will have major implications on the party’s current and future political relevance in national politics, analysts said, pointing to two senior-most party members, Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia, currently lodged in jail ahead of the Delhi assembly elections next year. They said it will come as a blow to the AAP’s plan to contest the Haryana assembly elections later this year if it puts up a poor show in the Lok Sabha elections.

Retaining their senior leaders will be a major challenge for the party, analysts said, adding that the Congress in Delhi — which has been out of power for over 10 years in the Capital — is also banking on a good performance in the Lok Sabha polls. The AAP and Congress tied up for the Lok Sabha polls in Delhi, with the former contesting four seats and the latter, three.

Besides Delhi, the AAP contested four seats in Delhi, 13 in Punjab, two in Gujarat, two in Assam, and one seat in Haryana. The AAP and Congress did not tie for the Lok Sabha polls in Punjab.

Sanjay Kumar, professor and co-director of Lokniti at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), whose core area of research is electoral politics, said that most of the exit polls showed lower-than-expected results for AAP in Delhi and Punjab.

“If the AAP does not perform well at a time when its top leaders are in jail, the expansion of the party will come to a screeching halt. It will pose very tough political challenges for the AAP, which also has to face an assembly election in Delhi next year. The expansion and survival will also become a challenge for the party. AAP and Congress did not have a choice other than coming together to face the BJP, because individually, they would have faced much difficulty in taking on the BJP,” Sanjay Kumar said.

Rahul Verma, fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, said for the AAP, the unexpected results as shown by the exit polls will definitely be disappointing but it will not cause an “existential crisis”, because “in 2019 Lok Sabha polls too the AAP drew blank in Delhi but managed to get a majority” in Delhi assembly election in early 2020.

“This time, the top leaders of AAP are in jail. Apart from causing some loss of confidence in party leaders, the impact of the Lok Sabha election on the AAP will depend on what happens to AAP-Congress alliance in the Delhi assembly polls and whether the jailed AAP leaders manage to get relief from courts,” Verma said.

“In Punjab, the Lok Sabha poll results will be a major setback for the AAP if the results are in alignment with the exit polls, but since the AAP has a very strong majority in the Punjab assembly, it will continue to rule the state. The unexpected Lok Sabha results will take a toll on the strength of the party’s roots in Punjab,” Verma said.

To be sure, most of the exit polls have predicted almost a clean sweep for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Delhi. “India Today- Axis My India” predicted six to seven seats for the BJP, and nil to one seat for the AAP-Congress alliance, with the BJP predicted to get a 54% vote share, the AAP, 25%, and the Congress, 19%. “News 24-Today’s Chanakya”, another exit poll, predicted six seats to the BJP and one seat to the INDIA bloc.

In Punjab, the exit polls have predicted a poor performance by the AAP. “News24-Today’s Chanakya” exit polls predicted four seats for the NDA, six for the INDIA bloc, and three for the rest, which includes the AAP.

However, AAP leaders have consistently rejected the exit polls. Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal termed the exit polls “fake” and said the INDIA bloc will form the next government at the Centre.

AAP leader and New Delhi Lok Sabha aspirant Somnath Bharti echoed Kejriwal’s stance. “The INDIA alliance is going to win 295 seats in the country and form the next government at the Centre. The exit polls will be proven wrong on June 4. In Delhi, all seven seats will go to the INDIA bloc. We have directed our counting centre agents to be vigilant all the time, till the end of counting at all centres,” Bharti said.

AAP Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh on Monday evening also said termed the exit polls “fake”, calling them an attempt to confuse the public and influence vote counting. “This is only an attempt to influence the administrative system and the Election Commission before the counting of votes,” he said.

A district-level leader of the AAP, requesting anonymity, said party workers are looking forward to the Lok Sabha election results with bated breath. “If the party does not win a single Lok Sabha seat in Delhi, it will be a big disappointment. According to our estimate, the party should win at least two seats in Delhi. We have held hectic campaigns in the scorching heat, reaching out to a large number of people. If that does not result in victory, then it will leave us discouraged,” the AAP leader said.

The AAP’s approach to the Lok Sabha polls in the Capital struck a confident note, as it initially offered the Congress only one seat before agreeing to a 4-3 formula. It also centred its campaign around the arrest of Arvind Kejriwal to mobilise voters in favour of the AAP. It also decided to contest all 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab independently, basing its confidence on the brute majority it enjoys in the Punjab assembly.

While success in the Lok Sabha polls will solidify the AAP’s position in national politics and increase its bargaining power, the opposite will undermine its position and create more challenges for the AAP.