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Rajya Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh: BJP fields former SP loyalist as 8th candidate
The eighth BJP candidate – former Samajwadi Party leader-turned-ex-BJP MP Sanjay Seth (a prominent realtor) –filed his nomination at around 1.30 pm – just ahead of the 3pm close of nominations on Thursday.
In a replay of the Rajya Sabha polls in 2016 and 2018, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Thursday again forced a contest at the last moment for the February 27 biennial polls from Uttar Pradesh by putting up its eighth candidate despite having the numbers to ensure the win of seven nominees.
The eighth BJP candidate – former Samajwadi Party leader-turned-ex-BJP MP Sanjay Seth (a prominent realtor) –filed his nomination at around 1.30 pm – just ahead of the 3pm close of nominations on Thursday. The move has now set the stage for cross-voting in the election.
Uttar Pradesh BJP chief Bhupendra Chaudhary said that the party was confident of securing numbers in Seth’s support.
“We have enough support in the Vidhan Sabha. Many others (in the opposition) too are inspired by the ‘Ram-may’ (atmosphere full of Ram) and that is why all eight Rajya Sabha candidates would win,” Chaudhary said.
Seth now is the eighth BJP candidate, and 11th overall, in the Rajya Sabha fray. He would need the support of nearly eight more lawmakers for a win. The fact that Seth is a “successful businessman” who, till 2016, had held several key portfolios in Samajwadi Party now means that he will tap his “contacts” in the opposition to prevail in the polls, which also would give an indication of the BJP plans to rattle the opposition ahead of the Lok Sabha elections due in April-May this year.
To showcase the BJP backing for Seth, deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya, cooperatives minister JPS Rathore, PWD minister Jitin Prasada, transport minister Daya Shankar Singh, along with allies Apna Dal (S) leader and minister Ashish Patel and fisheries minister Sanjay Nishad of the Nishad party were also present. The BJP’s other ally, Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party chief Om Prakash Rajbhar, was away in Shahjahanpur for a rally.
“Bilkul jitengey (will surely win),” said Seth despite being aware that he will fall short of at least eight MLAs for an outright win making the prospect of cross-voting imminent, something that wasn’t as clear till Wednesday by when all 10 candidates - seven from the BJP and three from the SP – had filed nominations for as many vacancies. The term of nine BJP MPs and a lone SP MP from Uttar Pradesh is ending on April 2.
Without Seth, all 10 would have sailed through unopposed to the Rajya Sabha. But, having forced a contest, the BJP clearly is sure of “additional numbers”.
Back in 2018, the then BJP national president Amit Shah (the current Union home and cooperation minister) astutely got the party to calculate even a fraction of second preference votes to ensure the win of his party’s ninth candidate. Two years earlier, in 2016 too, he had ensured a contest by backing an independent candidate, Preeti Mahapatra to set up an exciting contest against then Congress candidate Kapil Sibal, who eventually won. Shah is expected in Lucknow for attending a cooperative meet, around February-end – just around the time when Rajya Sabha voting would take place.
The Rajya Sabha polls are based on proportional representation and each candidate this time would need 37 first preference votes for an outright win from lawmakers in the 403-member U.P. assembly, which currently has an effective strength of 399, owing to demise of three lawmakers and the conviction-forced disqualification of another. The calculators are out in the BJP camp.
The BJP has 252 MLAs, and along with its allies Apna Dal Sonelal (13), Nishad Party (6) and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (6), its total strength goes up to 277 and the likely support of two lawmakers of former minister Raghuraj Pratap Singh aka Raja Bhaiya’s Janata Dal (Loktantrik) would increase its tally to 279. The growing proximity of Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) to the BJP would mean that nine of its lawmakers too would back the BJP, taking numbers up to 288. The Samajwadi Party has 108 MLAs in the assembly at present while it is likely to get the support of the Congress MLAs, which would the mean backing of 110 lawmakers. Given its relations with BSP, the lone BSP MLA is unlikely to back the SP.
Two MLAs are in jail and would require the court nod to cast their vote. If they can’t vote, it would be a setback to the SP. Making things difficult for the SP would be its sitting Sirathu MLA Pallavi Patel’s decision to not vote for the SP candidates due to the party not following PDA formula in naming candidates.
PDA is an acronym coined by SP leadership to denote “pichda (backwards), dalit and alpsankhyak (minorities)”. Patel said putting up actor and four-term Rajya Sabha MP Jaya Bachchan and former bureaucrat Alok Ranjan – both upper caste (while Ramji Lal Suman is a dalit) was not entirely in consonance with the PDA formula. The BJP’s other seven candidates include four OBCs, two upper castes and one from the Jain community.
They are: the party’s national spokesman and current Rajya Sabha member Sudhanshu Trivedi, former Congress leader RPN Singh, ex- lawmaker Sadhna Singh, BJP’s U.P. general secretary Amarpal Maurya, Chaudhary Tejveer Singh, Sangeeta Balwant and former Agra mayor Naveen Jain.
