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BJP could contest 31 seats, Shinde 13, Ajit Pawar 4
After a lot of toing and froing between its three allies, the state’s ruling combine has almost arrived at a seat-sharing formula for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections
MUMBAI: After a lot of toing and froing between its three allies, the state’s ruling combine has almost arrived at a seat-sharing formula for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. The BJP is expected to contest 31 seats, while the Eknath Shinde Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar NCP are likely to get 13 and four seats respectively.
The Shinde Sena’s 13 seats come with a condition: that the party will “borrow” BJP nominees for a couple of seats if necessary to improve the alliance’s chances of winning. Meanwhile, the BJP has announced candidates for 20 of the 23 seats that the party won in the 2019 elections. Union ministers Nitin Gadkari, Piyush Goyal and Raosaheb Danve are among the candidates announced on Wednesday.
Although the official announcement of the seat-sharing formula is expected to be done on Saturday, ahead of the dinner hosted by prime minister Narendra Modi for the NDA allies, the several rounds of meetings held over the last few days have resulted in the finalisation of the number of seats that will go to each partner. Shinde, who put his foot down after his meeting with union home minister Amit Shah in Mumbai last week, has reportedly succeeded in keeping the Shiv Sena’s sitting constituencies intact, given that as many as 13 sitting MPs out of 18 joined him when he defected from the Shiv Sena in 2022. Shinde is still insisting on a couple more seats but BJP leaders said their party was unlikely to concede more than 13.
“The CM convinced the BJP leadership that it would be imperative for him to retain the existing constituencies with the party,” said a senior BJP leader. “He told them that sitting MPs had jumped ship with him when he split the Shiv Sena, and it was his duty to retain their constituencies. There could be a change in the sitting candidates, while in a couple seats, the Shinde faction could even ‘borrow’ BJP candidates, like the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance did in Palghar in 2019 when the BJP’s Rajendra Gavit contested on a Sena ticket from Palghar constituency.”
In Mumbai, the BJP is likely to contest four or five of the six seats. It won three of these in 2019: North, North-East and North-Central. It is negotiating with Shinde for Mumbai South, where assembly speaker Rahul Narwekar could be fielded and Mumbai North-West if sitting Sena MP Gajanan Kirtikar decides not to contest against his son Amol, who has been nominated by the rival Shiv Sena (UBT).
“We have conducted multiple surveys and told our allies that the alliance has better chances of winning maximum seats in Maharashtra if our party contests 32 to 35 seats,” said a senior BJP functionary. “We understand that Shinde will face embarrassment if we reduce his share of seats despite his having 13 sitting MPs. However, he is willing to make adjustments to ensure that we have strong candidates. The situation with our other ally, Ajit Pawar, is the same.” Shinde was seeking at least 18 seats while Ajit Pawar was asking for eight to nine seats. Top leaders of the three parties had multiple meetings, including two meetings with union home minister and senior BJP leader Amit Shah.
The ruling parties are now determining a plan of action for constituencies where incumbent MPs are facing an anti-incumbency wave like Yavatmal-Washim’s sitting MP Bhavana Gawli and Nashik MP Hemant Godse, both from the Shiv Sena. “They are unlikely to be renominated, and the party has no strong candidates there,” said a Shinde camp leader. “While admitting Shinde’s contention of conceding sitting constituencies, the BJP has requested us to ‘borrow’ its candidates for better prospects. Similarly, if union minister Narayan Rane refuses to contest from Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg, Kiran Samant from our party could be the BJP candidate from the constituency.”
The leader said that the official announcement of seat-sharing and exchange of constituencies and candidates would happen in two days. He added that the BJP might consider asking for an exchange of the Mumbai North-West and Shirdi seats currently with the Shinde Sena. The BJP has conceded four seats to the Ajit Pawar faction: Raigad, Shirur, Baramati and Parbhani.
“Nothing has been finalised yet, though it is expected to be done in the next two days,” said Gajanan Kirtikar, sitting Mumbai North-West MP and Shinde camp leader. “We are expecting our 13 existing constituencies to remain with us. We are keen on contesting the North-West and South-Central seats in Mumbai.”
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