Can parties consolidate the Muslim vote?

With the political field splintered, the contest for the Muslim electorate – 25% of Mumbai’s population – is wide open

MUMBAI: With the January 15 civic elections approaching, political parties have begun jockeying for support among Mumbai’s largest minority, the Muslim community.

Thane, India - December -27, 2025: Municipal corporation elections in Maharashtra will be held on 15th January. In preparation for this, election staff have begun intensive preparations. Election officials are busy with their duties and are seen receiving instructions regarding upcoming tasks. At Ghanecker Hall in Thane, demonstrations and training sessions were conducted for election staff on how to handle Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). ,in Thane ,in Mumbai, India, on, Saturday, December -27, 2025. ( Praful Gangurde / HT Photo)

Muslims constitute a quarter of the city’s population, but the community has never voted as a bloc. Historically, Muslims have aligned with parties seen as secular, such as the Congress, as a bulwark against the BJP’s aggressive Hindutva ideology.

The Muslim vote, however, started to split with the entry of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and later the Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). In the last BMC election, the SP and AIMIM secured six and two seats respectively, in Muslim-dominated neighbourhoods.

In the present scenario, the political landscape is even more fractured vis-à-vis the last civic polls in 2017, making it difficult to predict how the community will vote. The NCP and Shiv Sena have split since the last polls, with one faction each aligning with the BJP and the other with the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

The Sena (UBT) factor

The 2024 Lok Sabha election threw up a surprise. Muslim voters — along with Dalits — backed the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), which won three of the six parliamentary seats in Mumbai. The community’s

Muslim voters began to view the Sena (UBT) in a favourable light after the party joined forces with the Congress in the MVA to take on the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in the state. As far as the Congress is concerned, the party is still preferred by Muslims due to its secular credentials.

However, the political landscape has since changed, with the Congress and Sena (UBT) contesting the civic elections separately.

Besides, for the BMC polls, the Sena (UBT) has forged an alliance with the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), who has repeatedly targeted Muslims on issues such as the use of loudspeakers for azaan.

“Muslims from Maharashtra can vote for them but not Muslims from North India. Since they were victims of MNS violence against North Indians, there is discontent among the community. Many have decided not to not vote for Sena (UBT)-MNS candidates even though they want to vote for Uddhav ji,” said Rehan Ghazi, 43, who runs a workshop in Antop Hill.

Mrudul Nile, associate professor in the Department of Civics and Politics, University of Mumbai, has a slightly different tilt. He believes Muslims may continue to back the Sena (UBT) but only reluctantly, due to its alliance with the MNS. “Sena (UBT) candidates will not receive significant Muslim votes and MNS candidates are unlikely to get any support from the community,” Nile observed.

Maulana Mehmood Dariyabadi, Islamic scholar associated and general-secretary of the All India Ulema Council (AIUC), says the Sena (UBT) is no longer “untouchable” for Muslims. “The Uddhav Thackeray-led party is no longer considered “untouchable” by the community. This change started during the Lok Sabha elections. The community can vote for them again but this will depend on the candidates, among other equations,” Dariyabadi said.

Of the 227 seats in the BMC polls, all eyes will be focused on the 35 to 40 seats where the Muslim community will play a decisive role. Madanpura, for instance, which falls in ward 211, has nine candidates in the fray, all of them Muslim. In Antop Hill, another Muslim-dominated neighbourhood, there are nine candidates contesting, six of them Muslim.

Moreover, in municipal elections, unlike parliamentary and assembly polls, civic issues tend to take centre-stage. Here, the candidates’ credentials and track record play a pivotal role, in addition to party affiliation.

Advocate Zubair Azmi, a resident of Muslim-dominated Madanpura in ward 211, a cultural historian and director of the Urdu Markaz, said locals always support a candidate who is accessible. “For us, the one who can resolve our issues is most important.”

In ward 179 in Antop Hill, another predominantly Muslim area, Ayesha Vanu is contesting on a Congress ticket as the ward has been reserved for women. Although a novice, her husband Sufiyan Vanu, won the last election on a Congress ticket from the same ward.

Abdul Hannan Shaikh, 38, a trader from Antop Hill, says, “He (Sufiyan) worked on basic issues in the area, from upgrading the local kabrastan, to street lights and flooding.” In a civic election, improving the quality of life is counted in votes.

Electoral significance

According to the 2011 census, Muslims constitute 25.1% of the 30.85 lakh population in Mumbai’s island city and 19.2% of the 93.56 lakh population in suburban Mumbai. In the island city, Muslims are concentrated in areas such as Bhendi Bazar, Dongri, Nagpada, Byculla, Mazgaon, Dharavi and Mahim.

In the suburbs, the community is concentrated in Govandi, Mankhurd, Kurla, Andheri, Jogeshwari, and parts of Malad (Malwani), Bandra east and Cheeta Camp (Mankhurd). Many of these areas are dense, space-starved neighbourhoods.

For instance, the M/East ward, which covers parts of Chembur, Govandi and Mankhurd, has 13 BMC seats. Of these, six corporators were elected from the Muslim community in the last election. Among them, five were from the Samajwadi Party.

Political strategies

For the upcoming BMC polls, the Congress is contesting a total 152 seats, among them 37 have Muslim candidates. The Ajit- Pawar-led NCP, contesting civic elections, for the first time since the split in the undivided party, has fielded 23 Muslim candidates from the 94 seats it is contesting.

This has fuelled speculation that the BJP kept the NCP out of the Mahayuti alliance for the civic polls to divide the Muslim vote. The NCP’s campaign is being led by senior leader Nawab Malik, who was slammed by the BJP over allegations of links to properties associated with the underworld.

Malik has rejected the charge that the NCP was meant to split the Muslim vote. “We have not fielded Muslim candidates in all Muslim-dominated areas. We have fielded candidates only in seats where we are in a strong position. This is why the party is contesting a limited number of seats. For instance, in Shivaji Nagar, we are contesting only one seat although there are six seats where Muslims are a strong force,” said the former Mumbai president of the NCP.

The Samajwadi Party is contesting 71 seats in the BMC elections. “We want people to be provided basic facilities such as clean drinking water, improved BMC schools, better health infrastructure, adequate supply of medicines and transparency,” says Abu Asim Azmi, the SP’s state president/

“For the last three years, there was no elected body in the BMC, which took corruption to unprecedented levels,” Azmi alleged, stressing the need for a “clean-up”.

The AIMIM has also fielded candidates in select wards, adding another layer of complexity to the electoral contest.