Maharashtra polls: From tribal belt to urban Nashik, BJP relies on Hindutva and OBC mobilisation

With issues such as unrest among tribal communities over reservation and unemployment, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is expected to put up a good fight

Mumbai: North Maharashtra has been a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bastion since the 2014 assembly elections, when it was swept by the Narendra Modi wave. However, the Hindu nationalist party can no longer take the region, which comprises 35 assembly seats in districts including Nashik, Ahmednagar, Jalgaon and Dhule, for granted any more.

Dhule [Maharashtra], Nov 08 (ANI): Prime Minister Narendra Modi along with Maharashtra Dy CM Devendra Fadnavis, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Dhule seat candidate Anup Agarwal and others hold hands during a public meeting for the Maharashtra Assembly elections, in Dhule on Friday. (ANI Photo) (Narendra Modi Website)

With issues such as the unrest among tribal communities over reservation, unemployment, anti-incumbency, and the low prices for crops like soybean, cotton and maize, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is expected to put up a good fight in the assembly elections. This was evident in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, when the MVA won four of the six parliamentary constituencies in the region.

To counter the MVA’s challenge, the ruling Mahayuti alliance, which comprises the BJP, chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Sena and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), has resorted to hardline Hindutva and the mobilisation of its traditional vote bank, the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), apart from banking on the success of the Ladki Bahin welfare scheme. It was no coincidence that Prime Minister Narendra Modi kicked off his Maharashtra election campaign from Dhule and Nashik earlier this month, in which he first raised the “Ek hain toh safe hain” (We’re safe if we’re united) slogan.

In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP won the highest number of seats in north Maharashtra, 13, followed by the undivided Shiv Sena at six, while the remaining parties bagged a combined 16. The results are not likely to be so skewed towards the ruling alliance this time.

The BJP’s sitting MLAs from Nandurbar and Shahada, Vijaykumar Gavit and Rajesh Padvi, respectively, are facing a tough challenge from the Congress’s Kiran Tadvi and Rajendra Gavit, respectively. The two key issues are the unrest in the Dhangar community, which has been demanding inclusion in the Scheduled Tribes (ST) category, and unemployment. When Congress leader Rahul Gandhi raised these issues at a rally in Nandurbar last week, he got a huge response from the crowd.

To counter this unrest, the BJP has started a campaign of saffron mobilisation in Nandurbar district. Visuals and photos of a clash between two communities during a religious procession in September have been circulated on social media with the message, “We will have to rectify the mistake committed in Lok Sabha elections to avoid this.”

Hemant Gavit, a young farmer from Nandurbar who works for social organisations, said the tribal community supported the BJP and Shiv Sena in the past, but it can’t be taken for granted this time. “The ruling alliance is worried, so the saffron mobilisation is in full swing,” he said.

In Nashik district, sitting BJP MLAs in urban and rural areas are also facing trouble due to anti-incumbency and rebellion. In Nashik city, the party won all three seats in 2019. This time, its tally may take a hit. Nashik East MLA Rahul Dhikale is comparatively in a comfortable position than Nashik Central MLA Devyani Farande and Seema Hiray from Nashik West. Farande and Hiray are being challenged by Vasant Geete and Sudhakar Budgujar from the Shiv Sena (UBT).

Due to the expected close fight, videos and photos of violence in the Bhadrakali area of Nashik in August were circulated on social media recently. “Farande and Hiray are facing a challenge from the MVA candidates, but saffron mobilisation is likely to help them,” said a former independent corporator on condition of anonymity. “Besides that, Hiray has an association with a spiritual sect in the Nashik area and that is likely to help her in receiving around 10,000 votes, which are likely to be decisive. But it’s a fact that there is a fight for these two seats.”

In the rural areas of Nashik, the Chandvad assembly constituency is witnessing a triangular fight, with BJP MLA Rahul Aher facing his own cousin, Kedar Aher, who’s contesting as an independent. The intra-family fight is likely to benefit Congress candidate and former MLA Shirishkumar Kotwal.

In Dindori, a tribal-reserved seat, deputy speaker of the state assembly, NCP’s Narhari Zirwal, is up against Sunita Charoskar of the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar). Zirwal is a popular tribal leader. In October, the 65-year-old had jumped onto the safety net in Mantralaya to demand reservation for the Dhangar community in the ST category.

However, what makes the fight tricky for Zirwal this time is the fact that local NCP (SP) leader and sugar baron Shriram Shete, known as the king-maker in Dindori, controls the majority of Maratha voters. Before the NCP split in 2023, Shete used to ensure the Marathas voted for Zirwal. This time, the Maratha votes are likely to go in the NCP (SP) kitty. To counter this, Zirwal is trying to mobilise the OBCs to vote for him.

In Jamner, Maharashtra’s rural development minister, Girish Mahajan of the BJP, is facing heat from voters due to the low prices of cotton. In Akkalkuwa, MLC Amshya Padvi is contesting from the Shiv Sena against Congress MLA KC Padvi, who has been winning the seat since 1990.

While KC Padvi is battling anti-incumbency and has been accused of not working enough in the constituency, the battle for this seat is also interesting because of the presence of former BJP MP Heena Gavit, who is contesting as an independent. Gavit, the daughter of Maharashtra’s tribal development minister Vijaykumar Gavit of the BJP, is among the nine rebels from the Mahayuti who are in the fray.

The battle for north Maharashtra promises to be intriguing and could go a long way in deciding the fate of both alliances.