Maharashtra records 24k cases, experts say surge will continue for 3 more weeks

State health minister Rajesh Tope on Monday said if the spike continues, the government will have to impose a lockdown in certain cities

Amid the grim surge in Covid-19 cases in Maharashtra, experts and state-appointed medical professionals said the number of cases is expected to drop only post April 15, around eight weeks since infections started increasing in the state. Maharashtra has been witnessing an alarming spike in daily infections since mid-February now. After reporting more than 30,000 cases on Sunday, the state reported 24,645 new cases and 58 deaths on Monday, taking the tally to 2,504,327 and toll to 53,456. State health minister Rajesh Tope on Monday said if the spike continues, the government will have to impose a lockdown in certain cities.

(Pratik Chorge/HT Photo)

Tope said, “The chief minister in his address to citizens has been saying that if the number of cases keeps increasing, we will have to impose a lockdown. I will be talking to the chief minister again tomorrow. If cases continue to increase, then we will have to impose stricter restrictions.” He also said most of the cases in the state are asymptomatic. “It is my appeal to citizens to follow Covid-appropriate behaviour if they want to avoid a lockdown.”

Since March 17, when the state started reporting more than 20,000 cases a day, 156,999 infections have been recorded. In comparison, the state recorded 143,262 cases in total in November 2020 and 120,684 cases in December 2020. There are also 215,241 active cases in the state. The state’s positivity rate is 13.56%.

Dr Avinash Supe, chairman of the state-appointed death audit committee, said that numbers will stabilise post April 15. “Speaking to various epidemiologists and going by previous trends, we expect the number to stabilise in eight weeks, which means we can expect a drop only after April 15,” Dr Supe said.

He also added that, unlike the previous year, the case fatality rate (CFR) is low in the state. “The number of asymptomatic patients is higher,” Dr Supe said. Dr Tatyarao Lahane, director of the Directorate of Medical Education and Research (DMER), on Saturday had also told HT that cases will surge till April 15.

On Monday, the state’s CFR was 2.13%. Dr. Shashank Joshi, a member of the state-appointed task force said the state will see a spike in the coming days.

“The numbers will increase and the state will break records in the coming days. Apart from non-compliance to Covid-appropriate behavior, the other reasons for the surge is also increased testing and increased contact tracing in all districts,” Dr. Joshi said.

Dr. Uday Pai, a practicing paediatrician from Mumbai, said, “Ever since the city and state have opened up, people have become complacent. There is complete lack of discipline when it comes to following protocols.”

On Monday, Mumbai recorded 3,262 new infections and 10 deaths, taking the tally to 365,937 and toll to 11,596.

Meanwhile, experts also said that since the state is the worst-affected in the country owing to the pandemic, the pace of vaccination needs to increase rapidly. Dr Supe said, “By now, we should have opened vaccination for anyone more than 45 years of age.”

Thackeray had also raised this demand with the Central government, however, vaccination is limited to those above 60 years of age and those above 45 with comorbidities.

The state is vaccinating around 200,000-250,000 people on an average every day. Tope, on Monday, said that the state has vaccinated 4.5 million citizens.