No spike in cases in Mumbai despite rise in Covid tests

Five days after testing for Covid-19 was increased marginally in the city, no spike in cases has been recorded in the city yet, according to daily Covid data released by the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC)

Five days after testing for Covid-19 was increased marginally in the city, no spike has been recorded in the city yet, according to daily Covid-19 data released by the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). On the other hand, civic officials have maintained that the period of 15 days after Diwali remains is crucial and they will continue to be closely monitoring the situation till November 20 at least.

On the other hand, civic officials have maintained that the period of 15 days after Diwali remains is crucial and they will continue to be closely monitoring the Covid situation till November 20 at least. Five days after testing for Covid-19 was increased marginally in Mumbai, no spike in cases has been recorded in the city yet. (Satish Bate/HT Photo)

Daily testing has risen from November 9 anywhere between 33,000 and 41,000 samples from the previous 25,000 to 35,000 tests a day. However, the daily positivity rate remained below 1% throughout. Similarly, active cases in Mumbai have dropped from 5997 on October 13 to 3580 on November 14, a drop of 40.3%.

Mumbai has conducted 11.86 million tests until November 14 with an overall positivity rate of 6.40%.

Dr Madhav Sathe, former microbiologist at BYL Nair Hospital said, “The load of active cases is going down. Testing in the city had reduced, but is regaining momentum. Fortunately, daily positivity is quite low in spite of huge public movement for festival celebrations, travel, and visits to temples. However, we will have to wait for a week or eight days more to observe any possible impact of Diwali crowding.”

To be sure, the city did not see any spike in daily caseload even after suburban train services reopened on August 15. From October 4, the civic body allowed reopening of schools for Grades 8 to 12 followed by reopening of religious places from October 7. Subsequently, theaters and multiplexes in the city were allowed to restart on October 22. BMC officials said that even if the third wave hits the city, it will be milder than the second wave, when the city saw a maximum of nearly 11,000 daily cases.

On Sunday the city reported 264 cases and two deaths taking the case tally to 760,329 and toll to 16,292. There are 737,930 recoveries in the city with 97% recovery rate. The mortality rate is 2.14% and there are 3,580 active cases in the city, according to data from the state health department.

Dr Sathe added, “The daily count is unlikely to exceed 400 in Mumbai, and for the state, it should not cross 1,500. Overall, things are looking across the country. Also, post Diwali, vaccination rate is picking up. However, close to 20% of the population in India has not taken any dose so far, and 60% are still not fully vaccinated. Our vaccine stock has improved, but the general public feels Covid-19 is gone. This is certainly not true. We cannot let our guard down.”

A BMC health department officer said: “The period right up to December 31 is going to be crucial, but most likely in phases. In the first phase, the impact of spread due to festivals and relaxations will be known by November 20. In the second phase, Christmas and New Year celebrations will need to be monitored. There is a possibility of international traffic arriving in Mumbai from western countries as they have long holidays during Christmas week.”

As of November 13, 100% of the city’s eligible adult population was vaccinated according to the Central government’s CoWin dashboard. But more remains to be done as thousands of Mumbai residents are still not vaccinated. To be sure, Mumbai may have statistically achieved the milestone of 100% first dose coverage, but the city will have to administer many more doses to truly cover its entire adult population. The reason: An estimated 10-20% people who have got the Covid-19 vaccine in Mumbai are likely to be from other parts of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) or the rest of Maharashtra.

“We are definitely accounting for this slight mismatch. Therefore, our vaccination drive will continue aggressively,” said Mumbai’s executive health officer Dr Mangala Gomare. “We will have to reach much beyond 100%,” she said.