Rain spell to intensify, Mumbai placed under orange alert

Despite predictions of heavy rains starting Saturday, the city received just 45

Despite predictions of heavy rains starting Saturday, the city received just 45.6mm of rain in the 48 hours ending 8.30am Sunday, followed by 2.4mm rain in the next eight hours. India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials confirmed that there has been a delay in the onset of showers, which are now expected to arrive sometime on Monday. Heavy rains will continue intermittently for the rest of week, meteorologists said. IMD has placed the city under an orange category warning system, indicating heavy to very heavy showers are “very likely”.

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The delay in the onset of predicted showers has been attributed to the formation of an east-west shear zone, an area filled by opposing winds, over north Konkan coast. According to at least two independent meteorologists, this has inhibited rain bands lying off Mumbai coast from penetrating inland, leading to lesser-than-anticipated rainfall over the city. However, such a phenomenon typically strengthens monsoon conditions.

Officials and experts clarified that rains have not skipped the city and are likely to arrive very soon under the influence of a low-pressure area forming in the Bay of Bengal and an upper air cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea. Over the next four to five days, Mumbai may receive as much as 400mm of rain.

“Mumbai will start getting showers soon. It is going to be the wettest week of the season so far. From Today till Wednesday/Thursday, total rainfall is likely to exceed 400mm. We will have a 12-hour period with 200mm rainfall which will lead to waterlogging,” said an independent meteorologist on Sunday morning. “Mumbai-MMR [Mumbai Metropolitan Region] can expect moderate showers on July 11. Current forecast suggests moderate to heavy rain in the region on July 12, which can cause waterlogging and usual disruptions. Overall active next week for the monsoon,” tweeted Akshay Deoras, an independent meteorologist affiliated with the University of Reading, England.

The city has so far seen 1,109mm rain since June 1, which is around 37% in excess of the seasonal normal of 801mm. However, since July 1, the city has recorded largely deficient rains at a departure of more than -80% of the normal rainfall for the same period.